Guesstimates on September 10, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1430-1440.  The ES is headed well over 1450 but first it is likely to react from the vicinity of 1442 which is the level of the May 2008 top.  

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The bond market is anticipating a revival of economic activity in the US. The 10 year yield  could easily push  to 2.50% or even higher.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market at 1.2600 has been broken. Yesterday the ECB announced its intention to support the Euro by sterilizing its prospective bond purchases. It rarely pays to fight a central bank intent on supporting its currency. Given the likelihood of further easing by the US Fed I think the monetary situation favors more upside in the  Euro from here. 1.2950 and 1.3450 are my next upside targets.  

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

October Crude: The market should stop near 96.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market dropped a few weeks ago to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529 and has started to rally. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - December Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: AAPL  is headed to 690-700.  Support stands at 645.

Guesstimates on September 7, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1431-1444.  The ES is headed well over 1450 but first it is likely to react from the vicinity of 1442 which is the level of the May 2008 top.  

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The bond market is anticipating a revival of economic activity in the US. The 10 year yield  could easily push  to 2.50% or even higher.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market at 1.2600 has been broken. Yesterday the ECB announced its intention to support the Euro by sterilizing its prospective bond purchases. It rarely pays to fight a central bank intent on supporting its currency. Given the likelihood of further easing by the US Fed I think the monetary situation favors more upside in the  Euro from here. 1.2950 and 1.3450 are my next upside targets.  

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

October Crude: The market should stop near 96.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market dropped a few weeks ago to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529 and has started to rally. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - December Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: AAPL  is headed to 690-700.  Support stands at 645.

Guesstimates on September 6, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1406-1417.  Over the next month or two the market should move above 1450.

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The bond market is anticipating a revival of economic activity in the US. The 10 year yield  could easily push  to 2.50% or even higher.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market at 1.2600 has been reached. The next development should be a drop to 1.1900.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

October Crude: The market should stop near 96.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market dropped a few weeks ago to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529 and has started to rally. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - December Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: AAPL  is headed to 690-700.  Support stands at 645.

Gold

While we are waiting for the current narrow trading ranges in the Dow and the S&P to resolve themselves I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the status of the bull market in gold which has lasted 14 years and counting.

On the monthly bar chart above this post you can see that the gold bull market has been punctuated by several trading ranges which have lasted a year or more each (blue dash ovals). The latest one started in the summer of 2011 when gold hit an all time high near $1925.

Bull markets in commodities tend to end in wild bursts of enthusiasm which show up in weekly and monthly charts as V-shaped tops with very steep angles of ascent and then descent. Rarely is such a top followed by an extended trading range. In fact the drop from the $1925 top in gold has so far been smaller in percentage terms than the 33% drop which followed the  2008 high. This is reason to believe that the bull market in gold is still intact and that the current trading range will be resolved to the upside.

My best guess right now is that gold will rally to $2300 or so at which price its value in dollars would match the inflation-adjusted high price established in the year 1980. That top was followed by an 18 year bear market.

Guesstimates on September 5, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1400-1412.  Over the next month or two the market should move above 1450.

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has started to rally. If this rally has legs it could easily push the 10 year yield to 2.50% or even higher. The bond market is anticipating a revival of economic activity in the US.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market at 1.2600 has been reached. The next development should be a drop to 1.1900.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

October Crude: The market should stop near 96.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market dropped a few weeks ago to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529 and has started to rally. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - December Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: AAPL  is headed to 690-700.  Support stands at 645.

Guesstimates on September 4, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1397-1407.  The market's refusal to follow through on its rallies from the 1395-97 range makes it likely that a drop to 1385 or so will develop before a significant up move begins. Over the next month or two the market should move above 1450.

QQQ:  A move to 76 is underway.

TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield has started to rally. If this rally has legs it could easily push the 10 year yield to 2.50% or even higher. The bond market is anticipating a revival of economic activity in the US.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market at 1.2600 has been reached. The next development should be a drop to 1.1900.

Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.

October Crude: The market should stop near 96.  I think the next development will be a resumption of the bear market in crude. Next downside target is 66.

GLD – December Gold:   The market dropped a few weeks ago to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529 and has started to rally. I think a sustained up move is underway.  

SLV - December Silver: A sustained move up is underway.

Google: Google held support near 562 and now is headed up to 750.

Apple: AAPL  is headed to 690-700.  Support stands at 645.