Guesstimates on June 6, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1288-1301. I am expecting an end to the drop from 1373 somewhere in the 1275-85 range. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. Support now is at 144.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

update

Here is a daily chart of the June e-minis going back to the February top. I posted this chart on my paid blog yesterday.

As you can see I now think this correction will end in the 1275-85 range (green oval). There the drop from this week's high at 1347 would equal the size of the first leg down from 1373 (smaller blue dash rectangles). The entire drop from 1373 would in turn equal the size of the February-March drop (larger blue dash rectangles). The green target oval also straddles the lower edge of the trend channel I have drawn.

Here is something which may interest you Elliott fans. I think a fourth wave triangle is developing (thin purple lines). It may be the fourth of five waves up from 666 or the fourth of five from 1002. In either case the prognosis is for a rally to a lower top, a test of the low (thus completing the triangle) and then a strong move up to new bull market highs. A move equal in size to the width of the triangle would put the ES at 1440, but I think this is a conservative estimate of the upside potential.

Guesstimates on June 3, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1285-1303. I am expecting an end to the drop from 1373 somewhere in the 1275-85 range. A sustained swing up above the 1400 level will be the next significant development.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. The midpoint of the drop from 149.38 is 144.53 and this will probably act as temporary resistance. Support now is at 143.00.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on June 2, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1307-22. The market's response to tomorrow's employment number will determine whether the low at 1302.25 holds or not. Even if it is broken I think the end of the break will be near 1290. I still think the start of a sustained up swing to 1400 and above is imminent..

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150.00 and higher. The midpoint of the drop from 149.38 is 144.53 and this will probably act as temporary resistance.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on June 1, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1330-1342. I think that a sustained up swing to 1400 and above is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I no longer think the Euro is headed for 137.00. Instead I believe the 139.68 low will hold and that the market is headed back to 150 and higher. The midpoint of the drop from 149.38 is 144.53 and this will probably act as temporary resistance.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – August Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 31, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1333-1345. I think that a sustained up swing to 1400 and above is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has reached and exceeded 143.50 resistance. If the market is headed for 137.00 as I currently believe then an extended swing downward should begin today or tomorrow. Looking further ahead I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Gold appears on its way to new highs. Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1430.

SLV - July Silver: Resistance in silver is 41.50. An strength above 43.00 would mean that the market is headed above 50.00.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 27, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1325-1333. I think the drop from 1373.50 has ended and that a sustained up swing to 1400 and above is underway.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 143.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market now is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 26, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1315-1330. I think the drop from 1373.50 has ended and that a sustained up swing to 1400 and above is about to start.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 143.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market now is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 25, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1306-1318. I think the drop from 1373.50 is scraping bottom and that a sustained up swing to 1400 and above is about to start.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 143.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market now is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

lots of bears

Here are two reasons why I think that the S&P 500 will soon begin a move to 1400 and above.

The top chart shows the weekly reading and the five week moving average of the AAII survey of investor sentiment. The data are the weekly ratios of bears to bears plus bulls. The higher the number the more bearish is investor sentiment. You can see on the chart that both the weekly reading and the five week moving average are at their highest levels since August of 2010. This is remarkable because the S&P itself is only about 5% off of its bull market high thus far.

The lower chart is even more striking. It shows the 10 day moving average of the CBOE equity put-call ratio (green line). This moving average is actually higher than it was at the July 2010 low which ended a 17% drop. A lot of people are betting on a continuing decline here!

I think this is evidence of a high level of bearish sentiment in this market. I don't think the bears' wishes will be fulfilled. The S&P will soon start a move to 1400 and above.

Guesstimates on May 24, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1316-1329. I think the drop from 1373.50 is scraping bottom and that a sustained up swing to 1400 and above is about to start.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 143.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market now is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 23, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1307-1320. I think the drop from 1373.50 will end today. The next big swing should take the market over 1400.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 143.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market now is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 20, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1331-1342. I think the drop from 1373.50 ended at 1316. The next big swing should take the market over 1400.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 145.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market now is at 82.45.

July Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 19, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1340-1356. I think the drop from 1373.50 ended yesterday at 1316. The next big swing should take the market over 1400.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 145.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market now is at 82.45.

June Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

guesstimates on May 18, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1323-1336. I think the drop from 1373.50 ended yesterday at 1316. The next big swing should take the market over 1400.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 145.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 81.80.

June Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

only a few more points

Here is an hourly chart of 24 hour trading in the e-minis going back to the Bin Laden high at 1373.50.

I think this correction is nearly over. The target area is the green oval. This is the confluence of the lower line of the trend channel, the midpoint (1307) of the rally from the March low at 1240 to the 1373 high (green dash line) and the level, 1310, at which the third phase of the correction will equal the length (48 points) of the first phase (blue rectangles).

Once the low is in place I think a rally will start. I expect it to carry the ES up and above the 1400 level over the next few months. This bull market is not over.

Guesstimates on May 17, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1314-1332. I think the drop from 1373.50 will end today or tomorrow. The next big swing should take the market over 1400.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 145.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 81.80.

June Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 16, 2011

June S&P E-mini Futures: I think the ES is establishing a base which will support a move to 1400 and higher. Today's range estimate is 1319-34. I think the drop from 1373.50 will end today or tomorrow.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 145.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 81.80.

June Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

Guesstimates on May 13, 2011

(note: Blogger was down most of the day - here are the estimates I prepared before the open this morning)

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1348-62. The drop from 1373 ended at 1325. The ES is now headed above 1400.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for 137.00. Resistance is at 145.50. I still think it is likely that it will reach 150 and above during the next few months.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 81.80.

June Crude: It looks like the trend is downward. Support is at 94 and I think the market will rally to 106 or so before another down leg develops. That subsequent down leg should carry crude down to 88.

GLD – June Gold: Downside target is 1430. Resistance above the market is 1530. I think that gold will trade above 1600 during the next few months.

SLV - July Silver: Support in silver is at 31.50. The market should rally to 41.50 after hitting 31.50 support.

Google: GOOG is headed for support at 495 from which point the move to 700 and above will resume.

Apple: Next upside target is 410. Support is at 310.

reaction is nearly over

Here is an hourly bar chart showing ES trading going back to the March low at 1241.

From the Bin Laden high of 1373.50 the market has dropped 47 points so far. I think it is going a little lower, say to 1310 or so (green oval). That level is support for two reasons. First, at 1310 the length of the second down leg would equal the length of the first one (blue dash rectangles). Secondly, if the market maintains the pace of the decline it will reach 1310 right at the lower boundary of the trend channel I have drawn.

There is perhaps a one in three chance that the lower channel line of the green trend channel will hold instead and that the low of the correction has already been seen. We'll know if this is the case within the next day or two. A rally from today's low of 1328.75 that carries through tomorrow would convince me that the correction is already complete.

In either case I think the market is preparing for a move up above the 1400 level. This bull market is far from over.