Thursday, May 19, 2005

Bull Market Boxes in the S&P

The weekly chart you see above depicts my estimates for the bull market boxes in the cash S&P 500 index. These boxes are 185.65 points high. The solid lines denote the positions of the top of each successive box and are found at 768.63, 954.28, 1139.93, 1325.58 and 1511.23. The dashed lines are the 1/2 points of each box.

The market has just bounced off of the top of the second box at 1139.93. The logical upside target now is the top of the third box at 1325.58. Given the level of bearishness that has built up over the past year I would not be surprised to see the market move up even more than that, perhaps to the 1/4 level of the fourth box at 1371.99 or even to the 1/2 point of that fourth box at 1418.40.

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