Thursday, May 12, 2005

Year Ahead Forecasts

When I was in the newsletter business 25 years ago I used to publish year ahead forecasts for the stock and bond markets. Some were spectaculary good, others mediocre or worse.

I stopped publishing long range forecasts when I left the newsletter business in 1983. It didn't seem to me that such forecasts had much value when it came to short term speculation which was my interest at the time.

As the years passed I began to understand that the true situation was quite the reverse. Indeed, if your only interest is making money in the markets, then a reasonably accurate long term forecast is worth much more than its weight in gold! So starting in 2003 I began to send long term stock market forecasts to my market friends and in 2004 starting doing the same thing for the bond market.

These are the forecasts that are posted above.

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