Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Google on May 18

I've been following Google's stock (GOOG) with great interest since Google went public last August. I think the progress of Google is a textbook study in the use of contrary opinion. Ive posted on this here, here and here.

The daily bar chart you see above depicts my estimates of the price boxes in GOOG. These boxes are 36.33 points high. The market is nearing the top of the second box at 237.90. From there a reaction to the 1/2 point of this second box at 219.75 would be normal. However, GOOG is acting much stronger than the market so I think a reaction from 237.90 will only be 1/4 of a box (about 9 points) instead of 1/2 a box (about 18 points). Moreover, I think a move to the 1/2 point of the second box at 256 is likely before we see any reaction of as much as 20 points in GOOG.

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