Tuesday, May 17, 2005

A Note on T-bonds

The hourly chart you see above depicts my updated box analysis of the June T-bond futures. My last comment on this market was just after the employment number came out on May 6. I said that the bonds looked like a buy near 113-28 based on my box analysis.

The market still appears to be headed up to the top of another 46 tick box at 116-16. This morning the PPI number came out higher than the consensus estimate and housing starts were strong. Despite this bearish news the market has rallied strongly and this is good evidence that the uptrend which began late in March 2005 from the 109 level is still intact.

I think we will see t-bond futures trading in the 118-120 range within a couple of months before the rally from 109 exhausts itself. See my 2005 bond market forecast for more details.

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