Here is an hourly chart of the December S&P e-mini futures. I commented on this market earlier today.
The market so far has dropped as low as 1366.50. I now think that the entire correction from 1395.25 is over for all practical purposes. After a few hours of sideways action the market will begin its move into the 1410-20 zone.
7 comments:
I smell a rat
I was looking for a tradeable low this morning BUT i don't like that:
1) NDX & Q's are weaker than Nasdaq ( which is weaker than SPX/ than DJI) & we keep lingering near the lows
2) i don't see any intraday oversold signs
3) bonds are getting the heck kicked out of them
4) SWH much weaker than SMH -- there goes the cap-ex spending thesis
5) and most of all, many individual prominent trading stocks have been taken apart (GRMN, CAT, etc) & the indices are masking that weakness probably thru group rotation & distribution
I hope that i'm not merely getting bearish at "a" bottom
Please don't get run over while the train is on the way up... choo choo!!!
We need more bearishness.....that will lead the market up.
Incredible job of your blog....every reader on here appreciates your intelligent insight.
Cheers
Looks like a "kissing your sister" close to me. Here we are 6 days in a row down in the DJI & still can't manage a feeble reversal on a Friday afternoon.
I still say the fact that many individual prominent trading stocks have been taken apart (GRMN, CAT, etc) & that indices are masking that weakness is a worrisome thing.
i am keeping my eye on the bigger picture. we are only 10 trading days away from the time envelope shown in mr futia's lindsay posts.a modest new high in the 141sp area accompanied by moves in shld,goog and baidu to projected targets would certainly grab my attention.as we all know, forcasts can be dangerous to our acount balance. my criteria for any forcaster is that their work be simple, repetitive, transparent, and surprising to even me, free.they also must have no problem saying when they are wrong.mr futia fits the bill.why free?the best traders can make all they need trading.
I wasn't attacking nor critcizing Carl's work. As a matter-of-fact, I have consistently expressed my admiration & gratitude for his blogsite. But apparently some other readers feel insecure when faced with an alternative view. As one astute guest on CNBC said several months ago "We are in the business of being wrong." If one thinks that trading is a matter of blind faith, follow Ted Haggard.
Carl, can you or anyone verify the following ? I have NOT seen it anywhere else.
http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=pmp*aid=2703*time=am "In October, the Daily Sentiment Index published by Investors Intelligence hit a record high of 91.2% bulls vs. 8.8% bears for the S&P 500."
I cannot speak for anyone else. But for myself I will say that I am in the business of being right.
What the CNBC commentator meant & I would have thought that you would have understood is things basically take care of themselves when we are right. What matters is WHAT we do when we are wrong. Now, if you are claiming that you are seldom wrong that is another matter. I thought that this was a site about the markets. I didn't realize that it was a religious site for True Believers or such fragile egos.
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