Monday, April 02, 2007

Guesstimates on April 2, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - June S&P Futures: Support in the Spiders is at 140.50 and in the futures it is at 1415. The next significant move will be upward to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: I am looking for a move up to 46.50.

TLT - June Bonds
: I now think TLT will drop to 85 before resuming its bull market. The bonds have decisively broken support and are now headed down to 109 before the bull market resumes.

June 10 Year Notes
: The notes broke support yesterday and I now think the market is headed for 105-16 before the bull market resumes.

Euro-US Dollar
: I think that the next 500 pips from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: The 115.14 low on March 5 will hold and that the market is now headed for 123. Meantime the 118.30 level is resistance. I expect to see the yen trade at 130 later this year.

OIH - USO - May Crude: I still think OIH will reach 151-53 before resuming its longer term drop. USO will rallied to 54 but the next 10 points from here will be downward. May crude has reached resistance at 66.00. I still think the next big move will be downward to 55.00 or so.

GLD - June Gold: I think that both GLD and April gold have begun an extended decline that will carry gold well below 600. Resistance in the futures is at 675.

May Silver: Silver has resistance today at 1365 and an extended drop lies dead ahead.

Google: I think the 437 low in Google will hold and that the move to 564 has started.


Will Rahal said...

Hi Carl, this is the updated tracking record for daily up\down indicators.

For the first quarter of 2007, the Daily Up/Down Indicator
was accurate in 42/61 days, or, 69% ,of the time.
For the month of march, 2007, it was accurate
in 16/22 days , or, 73%.

Probability (4/2) for the SP500 being UP = .47
So, for Monday, we have a NEGATIVE bias for the Market.

ps: keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

Carl, your forecast of 85 for TLT will only take it to the middle of the down channel. It could break thru the mid-channel mark and end up as low as 82-83. Much lower than that and the "bull market in bonds" is over.