Guesstimates on September 28, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The market has held short term support at 1522 and should rally to 1590 or so. (Corresponding levels for Spiders are 150.50 and 158.00.) If, contrary to my expectation, weakness below 1515 does develop then I would expect continuation down into the 1470-80 range before a rally to new highs begins.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. Resistance above the market stands at 111-20. TLT is on its way to 84 but I expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105. Resistance above the market stands at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has moved passed the 141.00 level but I still think the next big move from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: The 81.00 level was penetrated decisively yesterday so I think crude will move up into the 86-87 zone before turning lower. The upside target for USO is now 64. I expect OIH to rally into the 200-205 zone and ELE to hit 80.

GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has bounced off of the 1380 level and the start of an extended drop is near.

Google: I think that a rally to 650 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 27, 8:05 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The market has held short term support at 1522 and should rally to 1590 or so. (Corresponding levels for Spiders are 150.50 and 158.00.) If, contrary to my expectation, weakness below 1515 does develop then I would expect continuation down into the 1470-80 range before a rally to new highs begins.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. Resistance above the market stands at 111-20. TLT is on its way to 84 but I expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105. Resistance above the market stands at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has bounced off of the 1380 level and the start of an extended drop is near.

Google: I think that a rally to 650 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 26, 8:35 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The market held short term support at 1522 yesterday and should now rally to 1590 or so. (Corresponding levels for Spiders are 150.50 and 158.00.) If, contrary to my expectation, weakness below 1515 does develop then I would expect continuation down into the 1470-80 range before a rally to new highs begins.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. Resistance above the market stands at 111-20. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 84 or so has begun but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105. Resistance above the market stands at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has bounced off of the 1380 level and the start of an extended drop is near.

Google: I think that a rally to 650 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 25, 8:10 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: Short term support stands at 1522 in the futures and 150.50 in the Spiders. The S&P’s and Spiders are in the middle of a move which will establish new bull market highs by a substantial margin.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 84 or so has begun but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver should bounce off of the 1380 level and start an extended drop.

Google: I think that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 24, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: Short term support stands at 1522. Resistance above the market is at 1560 (for the Spiders these levels are 151 and 155 respectively). The S&P’s and Spiders are in the middle of a move which will establish new bull market highs by a substantial margin.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 84 or so has begun but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Switching to the November contract. The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver should bounce off of the 1380 level and start an extended drop.

Google: I think that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 21, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: Short term support stands at 1522. Resistance above the market is at 1560 (for the Spiders these levels are 151 and 155 respectively). The S&P’s and Spiders are in the middle of a move which will establish new bull market highs by a substantial margin.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 84 or so has begun but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Switching to the November contract. The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver should bounce off of the 1380 level and start an extended drop.

Google: I think that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Tale of the Tape

The last tale can be found here.

LEADERS:

GOOG: Support is at 525. Next upside target is 610.

IBM: A rally to 130 is underway.

GS: I think GS will rally to 250.

CME: I think the market will rally to 630 before the bull market ends.

MO: Support is at 65. Upside target is 75.

OF INTEREST:

BIDU: No sign that the bull market is over. Support is 210. Next upside target is 325.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 40.

AAPL: Upside target is 190. Support is 115.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Next upside target is 190. Meantime support is at 124.

NYX: Support stands at 63. I think a rally to 90 is underway.

NMX: I think the action in NMX bodes ill for crude oil prices and for the price of NMX itself. Resistance is at 135 and the 100 level will be seen later this year.

PFE: Support is 22.50. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: A rally to 62 is likely but the bear market in AMGN is not over.

SHLD: Has reached support at 132. The next move should be upward to 155.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Upside target is now 105. Support is at 65.

EBAY: Support is at 30.00. Market should reach 50 in a few months.

WMT: Headed for 55. Support is at 42.50

Guesstimates on September 20, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: I expect the futures to rally to 1560 and the Spiders to 155 before another break of 50 (respectively 5) points can develop. The S&P’s and Spiders are in the middle of a move which will establish new bull market highs by a substantial margin.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-07 zone. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 84 or so has begun but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has nearly reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Switching to the November contract. The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has reached 739, a little above the top it established in May of 2006. I think a substantial drop is about to start.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has moved a little above the 1330 target and I think a substantial drop is about to begin. looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Baidu

Here is a weekly chart of Baidu.com. I last commented on this chart here.

As you can see BIDU has finally reached my long term target near 270, a target that was ridiculed by many back in 2005 when I first posted it.

As yet there is no sign that the bull market in Baidu is over but the 270 level is very strong resistance. So I think BIDU is going to take a breather here. Support beneath the market is now at 210.

Guesstimates on September 19, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The Fed new yesterday afternoon pushed the market into a decisive upside breakout past the early August reaction high. This means that the futures will rally to 1560 and the Spiders will rally to 155 before another break of 50 (respectively 5) points can develop. The S&P’s and Spiders are in the middle of a move which will establish new bull market highs by a substantial margin.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: As long as the bonds don’t close below the 112-00 level I shall expect another move up to the 114-24 level before a more extended drop begins. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 86 or so has begun, but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08. Support is at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude is trading above 82.00 this morning but I think the market will soon drop to the 70 level or lower. hit 81.00 early this morning. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling near 73 and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has reached 735, the top it established in May of 2006. I think a substantial drop is about to start.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is near the 1330 target and I think a substantial drop is about to begin. looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

MIni Three Peaks and a Domed House

Here is a daily chart of the Dow Industrials over the past year. In my last post on the subject I discussed various examples of Lindsay's three peaks and a domed house formation. In this post I want to focus attention on the "mini three peaks" which is the example that has developed most recently.

Today's upside breakout identifies the recent low near the 13000 level as point 14 of the domed house. (See the schematic I published here.) The implication is that the Dow is on its way to new highs as sketched in the chart. I believe the up move will start to loose steam in early November at which point I think point 21 will develop. However I also think that the average will go still higher later this year or in early 2008 to form point 23.

S&P's, Spiders, and QQQQ's

Here is a daily chart of the Spiders (multiply by 10 to get the cash S&P). I last commented on this market here.

Contrary to my expectation the market broke above its early August rally top on the Fed's announcement of a 50 basis point rate cut (which was more than the market had expected). I think this is a very bullish development and it means that the next significant reaction will unfold only after the market has rallied near to its July top at 156. In the meantime support is at the 149.50 level.

The second chart above this post shows the daily count of the number of issues on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price together with its 5 day moving average (pink line). I last commented on this indicator here.

As you can see today's daily number is very high and breaks the pattern of lower tops for the daily readings. The 5 day moving average has turned up after dropping close to its moderately oversold level. I think this action is a short term negation of the bearish divergence I discussed yesterday. We shall have to wait and see if these numbers continue to improve as the market rallies towards its July top.

I remain very bullish on the market's prospects for the rest of the year and expect to see new bull market highs by a substantial margin during the next three months.

Guesstimates on September 18, 8:10 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: I think that the start of a 70-80 point break in the futures and 7-8 points in the Spiders is imminent. Even so I am also sure that new bull market highs will be seen before the end of the year.

QQQQ: The Q’s are starting to act weaker than the S&P’s. I now think that a drop to 46.20 or so will be the next development. Later this year the market should be trading well above 50.66, its bull market high so far.

TLT - December Bonds: The reaction in the bonds went further than I expected but as yet I see no evidence of a more extended downtrend. I still think the odds favor a move to 114-24 before this extended downtrend begins. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08. Support is at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude hit 81.00 early this morning. The upside target for USO is 62. OIH has stalled near 185 and its next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling near 73 and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is getting close to the 730 target. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Advancing Issues

Here are two daily line charts which show the daily count of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price. On the first chart the pink line is the 5 day moving average of this number. On the second chart the wiggly red line is the 10 day moving average of this number. I last commented on this indicator here.

You can see that both the daily count and its 5 day moving average have been moving downward since late August even as the market averages have rallied. The 10 day moving average shows the same behavior. I regard this as a significant bearish divergence and I think it portends a drop to about 1420 in the S&P futures and 141 in the Spiders. After this break I shall be expecting a move to new bull market highs.

Guesstimates on September 17, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: I suspect that the start of a 70-80 point break in the futures and 7-8 points in the Spiders is imminent. Even so I am also sure that new bull market highs will be seen before the end of the year.

QQQQ: The Q’s are starting to act weaker than the S&P’s. I now think that a drop to 46.20 or so will be the next development. Later this year the market should be trading well above 50.66, its bull market high so far.

TLT - December Bonds: The reaction in the bonds went further than I expected but as yet I see no evidence of a more extended downtrend. I still think the odds favor a move to 114-24 before this extended downtrend begins. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08. Support is at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude should hit 81.00. The upside target for USO is 62. OIH will probably rally back to is high near 192 while ELE will make it up to 75.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 14, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The S&P’s rallied above 1493 yesterday but could not move above their last top at 1513. This morning they are trading back below 1493. I really don’t know what to make of this, but the Q’s have suddenly started acting weaker than the S&P’s after a period of relative strength. This makes me even more cautious about following this short term up trend. The one thing I remain sure about is that new bull market highs will be seen before the end of the year, and that before new highs are seen we shall see at least one break of 70-80 points in the S&P’s and 7-8 points in the Spiders.

QQQQ: Any strength above 49.40 today will mean that the Q’s are on the way to new bull market highs above the last top at 50.66. Later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The reaction in the bonds went further than I expected but as yet I see no evidence of a more extended downtrend. I still think the odds favor a bove to 114-24 before this extended downtrend begins. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08. Support is at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude now looks like it is headed for 81.00. The upside target for USO is 62. OIH will probably rally back to is high near 192 while ELE will make it up to 75.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 13, 8:05 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: (December becomes the trading contract today.) y strength above the 1493 level today will mean that resistance at 1488 has failed. This in turn would indicate that the market is on its way at least to 1530 and possibly to new bull market highs without any big break first.

QQQQ: Any strength above 49.40 today will mean that the Q’s are on the way to new bull market highs above the last top at 50.66. Later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The market should continue upward to 114-24 or so. Support beneath the market stands at 113-00. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08. Support is at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude now looks like it is headed for 81.00. The upside target for USO is 62. OIH will probably rally back to is high near 192 while ELE will make it up to 75.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 12, 9:30 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: Resistance above the market is at 1475. The S&P’s are headed down into the 1400-20 zone. After this break I think we shall see a rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are headed down into the 47.00 – 47.50 zone. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The market should continue upward to 114-24 or so. Support beneath the market stands at 113-00. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude now looks like it is headed for 81.00. The upside target for USO is 62. OIH will probably rally back to is high near 192 while ELE will make it up to 75.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 11, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s are headed down into the 1400-20 zone. Resistance above the market is at 1475. After this break I think we shall see a rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are headed down into the 47.00 – 47.50 zone. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The market should continue upward to 114-24 or so. Support beneath the market stands at 113-00. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude has reached 76.50 resistance and I expect the market to soon begin a drop below the 67.00 level. I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 58.00 level looks like resistance in USO.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 10, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s are headed down into the 1400-20 zone. Resistance above the market is at 1475. After this break I think we shall see a rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: I think the Q’s are headed down into the 47.00 – 47.50 zone. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds broke above 113-00 resistance Friday so the market should continue upward to 114-24 or so. Support beneath the market stands at 112-04. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes broke above 109-28 resistance Friday and should now continue upward to 111-08.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude has reached 76.50 resistance and I expect the market to soon begin a drop below the 67.00 level. I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 58.00 level looks like resistance in USO.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 7, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s broke below yesterday’s low on the employment number this morning. If they continue down below 1460 I shall conclude that the market is headed down into the 1400-20 zone.

QQQQ: Should the Q’s drop below 48.50 today I shall conclude that the market is headed down into the 47.00 – 47.50 zone. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds still show no sign of weakness so I think this market will make it up to 113-00 before an extended drop starts. Meantime support beneath the market stands at 110-28. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached 109-28 resistance but still show no sign of weakness. I think that the market has a good shot at reaching the 110-16 level before the extended drop I have been expecting begins.

Euro-US Dollar: The market broke well above 136.60 resistance this morning so I conclude that it is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude reached 76.50 resistance yesterday and I expect the market to soon begin a drop below the 67.00 level. I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 58.00 level looks like resistance in USO.

GLD - December Gold: The move above the 700 level yesterday means that gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver now looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Three Peaks and a Domed House

Here are three daily charts of the Dow Jones Industrial average. On each I have labeled turning points according to the scheme invented by George Lindsay for describing the market's progress through his Three Peaks and a Domed House formation. I last commented on this subject here.

The first chart you see above this post depicts a major Three Peaks and a Domed House formation. It is a major formation because at least 6 months elapsed between the first and third peaks (points 3 and 7, not shown on the chart). I have to admit that this chart which I first presented here has fit very well with the market's movements. It is not my preferred scenario because the level of bearish sentiment at the August low point is simply not consistent with the typical situation which accompanies a point 24 low. Even so, should the market rally into the late-September, mid-October time frame without making new bull market highs I shall reconsider this position, especially if obvious bearish divergences accompany the rally.

For the time being however I am going with the second and third charts above this post which depict minor and mini examples of the Three Peaks and a Domed House phenomenon. The mini formation is especially significant because if it is valid (and I think it is) then the implication is that the bull market is not complete and that a rally to new highs is imminent. (The reaction I have been expecting in my daily guesstimates would put in the point 14 low in this mini formation.)

In both the mini and the minor formations I have labeled a November top as point 21 rather than as point 23 (the ultimate bull market top). The reason for this is that if the rally from the August lows does reach new highs I think it will last at least three months and probably more from bottom to top because of the severity of the July-August reaction.

Guesstimates on September 6, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s dropped a little below 1475 support yesterday but there wasn’t any follow through to the early selling. I think the market will hold 1470 and then rally into the 1500-10 range. After that the next significant development should be a move down into the 1400-25 range which will then be followed by a big rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: The Q’s have been acting even stronger than the S&P and should hit 50 again before a drop down to 47.50 develops. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds still show no sign of weakness so I think this market will make it up to 113-00 before an extended drop starts. Meantime support beneath the market stands at 110-28. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached 109-28 resistance but still show no sign of weakness. I think that the market has a good shot at reaching the 110-16 level before the extended drop I have been expecting begins.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market still stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that..

Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and support is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The rally in crude will probably continue up to the 76.50 level before the market turns lower again. I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.00 level looks like resistance in USO.

GLD - December Gold: Gold traded well above the 683 level yesterday but I think this rally has pretty much had it. The next significant move should be downward to below 650. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1245. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Tale of the Tape

The last tale can be found here.

LEADERS:

GOOG: Support is at 485. Next upside target is 610.

IBM: The 105-108 zone is good support and a rally to 130 is underway.

GS: I think GS should hold support near 160 and rally to 250.

CME: I think the market will rally to 630 before the bull market ends.

MO: Support is at 65. Upside target is 75.

OF INTEREST:

BIDU: No sign that the bull market is over. Support is 165. Next upside target is 240.

CSCO: Support is at 25. Next upside target is 40.

AAPL: Upside target is 165. Support is 115.

MSFT: Support is at 26.50. Next upside target is 33.50.

ICE: Next upside target is 190. Meantime support is at 124.

NYX: Support stands at 63. From there I expect a rally to 90.

NMX: I think the action in NMX bodes ill for crude oil prices and for the price of NMX itself. Resistance is at 135 and the 100 level will be seen later this year.

PFE: Support is 22.50. Upside target is 30.

AMGN: A rally to 62 is likely but the bear market in AMGN is not over.

SHLD: Has reached support at 132. The next move should be upward to 155.

KFT: Support is at 30. Next upside target is 39.

AMZN: Upside target is now 100. Support is at 65.

EBAY: Support is at 30.00. Market should reach 41 in a few months.

WMT: Headed for 55. Support is at 42.50

Guesstimates on September 5, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: The S&P’s got as high as 1499.50 yesterday, just shy of my 1500-10 target zone. Support today is at 1475 and I think the market is likely to take at least one peek above the 1500 level before a more substantial break develops. The next significant development should be a move down into the 1400-25 range which will then be followed by a big rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: The Q’s have been acting even stronger than the S&P and should hit 50 before a drop down to 47.50 develops. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds still show no sign of weakness so I think this market will make it up to 113-00 before an extended drop starts. Meantime support beneath the market stands at 110-28. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached 109-28 resistance but still show no sign of weakness. I think that the market has a good shot at reaching the 110-16 level before the extended drop I have been expecting begins.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market still stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that.

Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and support is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The rally in crude will probably continue up to the 76.50 level before the market turns lower again. I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.00 level looks like resistance in USO.

GLD - December Gold: Gold traded well above the 683 level yesterday but I think this rally has pretty much had it. The next significant move should be downward to below 650. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1245. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

Guesstimates on September 4, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - September S&P Futures: As long as the S&P’s stay above 1465 I shall expect a continuation of the rally into the 1500-10 zone (Spiders headed for 150-151). Once that zone is reached I think we shall see a move down into the 1400-25 range which will be followed by a big rally to new bull market highs.

QQQQ: The Q’s have been acting even stronger than the S&P and should hit 50 before a drop down to 47.50 develops. The bull market high so far is 50.66 and later this year the market should be trading well above that level.

TLT - September Bonds: The bonds still show no sign of weakness so I think this market will make it up to 113-00 before an extended drop starts. Meantime support beneath the market stands at 111-00. TLT has almost reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

September 10 Year Notes: The notes have reached 109-28 resistance but still show no sign of weakness. I think that the market has a good shot at reaching the 110-16 level before the extended drop I have been expecting begins.

Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market still stands at 136.60. I think this market is headed to 126.00 and eventually lower than that.

Dollar-Yen: I no longer think the yen will drop below it 111.57 low. Resistance is at 117.20 and this next break should hold above the 112.00 level. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level late this year or early next.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: The rally in crude will probably continue up to the 76.50 level before the market turns lower again. I think that the market will drop below 50.00 over the next 12 months. Both XLE and OIH are headed much lower. The 57.00 level looks like resistance in USO.

GLD - December Gold: Resistance above the market is at 683. I think gold has started a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market is at 1245. Silver has started a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV should drop below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher will begin soon.