Thursday, September 20, 2007

Guesstimates on September 20, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: I expect the futures to rally to 1560 and the Spiders to 155 before another break of 50 (respectively 5) points can develop. The S&P’s and Spiders are in the middle of a move which will establish new bull market highs by a substantial margin.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-07 zone. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 84 or so has begun but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has nearly reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Switching to the November contract. The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has reached 739, a little above the top it established in May of 2006. I think a substantial drop is about to start.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has moved a little above the 1330 target and I think a substantial drop is about to begin. looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

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