Monday, September 17, 2007

Guesstimates on September 17, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: I suspect that the start of a 70-80 point break in the futures and 7-8 points in the Spiders is imminent. Even so I am also sure that new bull market highs will be seen before the end of the year.

QQQQ: The Q’s are starting to act weaker than the S&P’s. I now think that a drop to 46.20 or so will be the next development. Later this year the market should be trading well above 50.66, its bull market high so far.

TLT - December Bonds: The reaction in the bonds went further than I expected but as yet I see no evidence of a more extended downtrend. I still think the odds favor a move to 114-24 before this extended downtrend begins. TLT has reached the 89.00 level and I think the next development will be a drop into the 80-81 range.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08. Support is at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude should hit 81.00. The upside target for USO is 62. OIH will probably rally back to is high near 192 while ELE will make it up to 75.

GLD - December Gold: Gold is headed for 730. I think gold will soon start a decline which will carry it to 500 and below.

SLV - December Silver: Silver looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think support near 485 will hold and that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

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