Friday, September 28, 2007

Guesstimates on September 28, 8:15 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The market has held short term support at 1522 and should rally to 1590 or so. (Corresponding levels for Spiders are 150.50 and 158.00.) If, contrary to my expectation, weakness below 1515 does develop then I would expect continuation down into the 1470-80 range before a rally to new highs begins.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. Resistance above the market stands at 111-20. TLT is on its way to 84 but I expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105. Resistance above the market stands at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has moved passed the 141.00 level but I still think the next big move from here will be downward.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: The 81.00 level was penetrated decisively yesterday so I think crude will move up into the 86-87 zone before turning lower. The upside target for USO is now 64. I expect OIH to rally into the 200-205 zone and ELE to hit 80.

GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has bounced off of the 1380 level and the start of an extended drop is near.

Google: I think that a rally to 650 or higher is underway.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your commodity predictions have been a joke last 6 months. Obviously you have no clue what you do when it comes to commodities and have lost all credibility.

I suggest to avoid being a laughing stock you focus on equities.

Gary said...

Just wondering why you are maintaining your bearish stance in commodities even after the Fed made it clear they will welcome an inflationary enviroment to appease the politicians?

Anonymous said...

How you can keep long dollar!!! I hope for you ,you don't trade your view!
GL

Anonymous said...

Hang in there, Carl. You do good work. We're in some blowoffs in gold and forex.

Anonymous said...

Dear sir ,
Can u pls stop updating euro-usd like that ?
It is a tradable product.
Needs entries-exits and mainly stops!

Anonymous said...

Please guys it has been obvious over the last 2 years that when you read this blog you focus on what he has to say about equities and bonds the rest i think he would be better off not publishing because it has no value unless you are into using his views as contrary indicator.
Dave

Anonymous said...

I think I read a couple of times here that Carl does not trade or speculate for that matter, you probably can describe his style as LT investing and therefore why do people get so upset about his views in the currencies and commodities ? I am sure he does not put his money where his mouth is, but thats fine because this is just a blog like many others out there.

Anonymous said...

oh boy Carl sorry to see you take all that heat but unfortunately this is what this business is all about... you are only as good as your last trade (or guessestimate in zour case). Maybe you should reevaluate and start fresh in the commodities, I have noticed that your daily hits/views are declining.

regards
Peter