Monday, October 01, 2007

Guesstimates on October 1, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The market has held short term support at 1522 and should rally to 1590 or so. (Corresponding levels for Spiders are 150.50 and 158.00.) If, contrary to my expectation, weakness below 1515 does develop then I would expect continuation down into the 1470-80 range before a rally to new highs begins.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. Resistance above the market stands at 111-20. TLT is on its way to 84 but I expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105. Resistance above the market stands at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has moved decisively passed the 141.00 level. The historical high in the euro is 145.75 which was reached in 1992. My best guess now is that the market will take a peek above there, probably hitting 146.00 and that this will be followed by a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: The 81.00 level was penetrated decisively so I think crude will move up into the 86-87 zone before turning lower. The upside target for USO is now 64. I expect OIH to rally into the 200-205 zone and ELE to hit 80.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has entered the zone of strong resistance in the 750-55 range and should soon start an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver has moved a little past resistance at the 1380 level but will probably stay below 1405. The start of an extended drop is near.

Google: I think that a rally to 650 or higher is underway.


Anonymous said...

I'm really sorry that you do not publish my comments. I guess you think they are to strong for all those "traders" who come only to criticise your work.

Anonymous said...

If you are so bulish stocks, the euro will keep rising and rising crashing the dollar! stop rising your level start sell dollars.