Friday, October 19, 2007

Guesstimates on October 19, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: Resistance above the market stands at 1560 (at 155.00 in the Spiders) and support is still at 1538 (1528.00). I now expect to see the futures rally to 1610. Should the S&P’s instead drop as low at 1533 then I will expect continuation down to 1510 followed by a rally to 1610.

QQQQ: It now looks like support at 52.50 will hold and that the market will head up to 56.00.

TLT - December Bonds: I think the bonds will rally into the 114-115 range. TLT should rally back to 90.

December 10 Year Notes: It now looks like the notes will rally to 111-08 or so before a more substantial drop develops.

Euro-US Dollar: Support beneath the market stands at 140.50. The historical high in the euro is 145.75 which was reached in 1992. My best guess is that the market will take a peek above there, probably hitting 146.00 and that this will be followed by a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 115.00. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Switching to the December contract. Crude has moved a bit above the 86-87 resistance zone but I think the next significant move will be downward. The upside target for USO has been reached as has the 200-205 target for OIH. The 80 target for XLE has nearly been reached.

GLD - December Gold: December gold is heading for 800.

SLV - December Silver: It now looks like silver is headed back to 1500.

Google: I think that a rally to 705 is underway. Support is at 590.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl:

SP500 futures dropped as low as 1536 overnight ... a move to 1510 is more likely than a rally here, there is important support at that level that needs to be tested, even intra-day