Thursday, October 04, 2007

Guesstimates on October 4, 8:10 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: Next upside target is 1600 in the futures and 159.00 in the Spiders. Short term support is at 1530 in the futures and 152.00 in the Spiders.

QQQQ: The Q’s are nearing their initial target at 52.50 but continuation up to 54.50 is likely before a reaction of a couple of points begins.

TLT - December Bonds: The action in the bonds makes me think that the market is now headed back into the 114-115 range. However I also think that will be a ceiling for the market and that a substantial drop will follow. TLT should rally back to 90.

December 10 Year Notes: It now looks like the notes will rally to 111-08 or so before a more substantial drop develops


Euro-US Dollar: Support beneath the market stands at 140.50. The historical high in the euro is 145.75 which was reached in 1992. My best guess now is that the market will take a peek above there, probably hitting 146.00 and that this will be followed by a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Support in crude oil is at 79.00 and I think crude will move up into the 86-87 zone before turning lower. The upside target for USO is now 64. I expect OIH to rally into the 200-205 zone and ELE to hit 80.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has entered the zone of strong resistance in the 750-55 range and should soon start an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.

SLV - December Silver: Silver will probably stay below 1405. The start of an extended drop is near.

Google: I think that a rally to 650 or higher is underway.


Anonymous said...

I noticed that a lot of people start to doubt on Carl's judgement on gold. Looks what is happening on Monday. The gold starts to move down in big way. The people's reaction in this blog is a perfect contrary indicator. It took me a while to figure out PEOPLE = MASS = MOB. To invest successfully, you really need to be a leading dog


Aurelien said...

Hey Carl,

Love the analysis as always. Im wondering why you haven't posted as many charts of what you think will happen with the S&P etc. I really enjoyed those and the analysis that came with them.

Anonymous said...

You obviously don't understand GOLD's behavior.

Have you witnessed the vicious, unrelenting "bounce" today.

Jeez, there's always gonna be some volatility, so a correction was expected. But the stength is so obvious in GOLD these days.

We don't have anything against Carl. We only wonder where he's coming from with his calls.