Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Guesstimates on October 24, 8:30 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The futures closed on 1525 resistance yesterday and will open lower. However I still think the rally has a little bit left in it so the market is a short at 1529 with a 10 point stop; I would exit this trade if it does not show a profit by 4pm New York time. Profit taking target is 1507. I expect another step downward to1480 or so before a move to new bull market highs can begin.

QQQQ: Resistance today is at 54.30 and I think we shall see another drop to 53.00 or so before the market moves up to 56.00.

TLT - December Bonds: I think the bonds will rally into the 114-115 range. TLT should rally a bit more, probably up into the 92-93 range.

December 10 Year Notes: It now looks like the notes will rally to 111-08 or so before a more substantial drop develops.

Euro-US Dollar: Support beneath the market stands at 140.50. The historical high in the euro is 145.75 which was reached in 1992. My best guess is that the market will take a peek above there, probably hitting 146.00 and that this will be followed by a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.00. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has support at 82.00 but I think we shall see only a brief bounce from that level. I think the next significant move will be downward. The upside target for USO has been reached as has the 200-205 target for OIH. The 80 target for XLE was not reached but I don’t think the market will make it there now.

GLD - December Gold: The trend is still upward with target 800 and support is at 745.

SLV - December Silver: It looks like silver is headed back to 1500 and support is at 1330.

Google: I think that a rally to 705 is underway. Support is at 630.


Anonymous said...

Yesterday, you wrote "...but I don’t think it wise to take a short position today given that the longer term trend is still upward."

Today, you write "However I still think the rally has a little bit left in it so the market is a short at 1529..."

Yesterday, you wrote the comment with your left hand & today, your right hand ? And one hand doesn't know what the other is doing ??

Anonymous said...

"However I still think the rally has a little bit left in it so the market is a short at 1529 with a 10 point stop."

CYA or bases. You got it both ways. You can claim that you were properly bearish because of the decline; but you would have never gotten short because it never got to 1529 before the decline today.

Carl, you tried to be too cute.

LowTax said...

Carl, thanks for the more detailed trade info for the S&P in your daily update. It's nice to get a feel for how you approach your support and resistance levels with actual trades...

Anonymous said...

Hi Carl:

Your insights are appreciated! Could you pls give a little bit more of your thoughts on why you think the SP futures will hit 1480?


Anonymous said...

Dear Anonymous (the first posting)

Carl said not to go short on the 23rd, and he was right, Tuesday was not a day to go short. However, the 24th, being a new day, was a day to be short. There is resistance at 1528-30. But as you know, markets do not always respect these levels. I believe that there is a bit more downside, but that it shd be short-lived. If you wanna go long wait 'till 1490.