Monday, October 22, 2007

Guesstimates on October 22, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The market closed below 1512 support Friday and has moved as low as 1492 early this morning. I think it is a buy at 1487 using a 1477 stop. The first rally will probably last only a day or two and carry the market up 30 points or so. Later this week I expect to see a 1475 print on the S&P’s ( and a 146.50 print on the Spiders). This is still just a normal reaction in a bull market.

QQQQ: Support today is at 51.50. This is just a normal reaction in a bull market. It now looks like support at 52.50 will hold and that the market will head up to 56.00.

TLT - December Bonds: I think the bonds will rally into the 114-115 range. TLT should rally a bit more, probably up into the 92-93 range.

December 10 Year Notes: It now looks like the notes will rally to 111-08 or so before a more substantial drop develops.

Euro-US Dollar: Support beneath the market stands at 140.50. The historical high in the euro is 145.75 which was reached in 1992. My best guess is that the market will take a peek above there, probably hitting 146.00 and that this will be followed by a multi-month drop.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.00. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – December Crude: Crude has Support at 82.00 but I think we shall see only a brief bounce from that level. I think the next significant move will be downward. The upside target for USO has been reached as has the 200-205 target for OIH. The 80 target for XLE was not reached but I don’t think the market will make it there now.

GLD - December Gold: The trend is still upward with target 800 and support is at 745.

SLV - December Silver: It looks like silver is headed back to 1500 and support is at 1330.

Google: I think that a rally to 705 is underway. Support is at 630.

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