Friday, October 05, 2007


Here is a daily log scale chart of the Shanghai composite index. I last commented on this market here.

As you can see the index is within a 100 points or so of my 5650 target. I think the next significant development will be a break of 800-900 points, about the same amount (arithmetically) as the last significant reaction. I should note that at about the 5800 level the market will have advanced the same percentage as the February-May rally. This is another reason to expect a stall in the 5600-5800 range.

After this next break is over I shall expect another leg up of about the same percentage as the current leg (70-75%). Such a move would put the index above the 8000 level.

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