Tuesday, October 30, 2007

S&P Trade

In this morning's guesstimate I said that the e-minis were a short at 1547. So far that level has not been reached today. As a rule I don't initiate positions after regular trading hours and since this trade would be against the direction of a multi-week uptrend I am canceling my sell order now.

I am inclined to give this trade one last chance tomorrow but Fed announcement comes out tomorrow at 2:15 pm New York time. So I want to see how the market handles itself between now and tomorrow's open before I put any new orders in.


Anonymous said...

The Fed Funds Futures imply a 70% chance of a .25 rate cut, and a 10% chance of .50 rate cut.

I suspect The Fed will cut by .25, and precipitate a weak rally. If the statement is to Hawkish on inflation, a small pull back could result.

No rate cut, and look out below.

Anonymous said...

hi Carl,

great analysis on the s&p trade. keep up the great work. wanted to ask you whether you think there is any possibility that we would still go down and retest last weeks lows on s&p at 1490 and possibly break it and go lower?

any thoughts?


Sam said...


I really appreciate your focus on providing insight into how you set up and take trades. Great stuff. Keep up the great work.