Spiders - December S&P Futures: The market held short term support at 1522 yesterday and should now rally to 1590 or so. (Corresponding levels for Spiders are 150.50 and 158.00.) If, contrary to my expectation, weakness below 1515 does develop then I would expect continuation down into the 1470-80 range before a rally to new highs begins.
QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.
TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. Resistance above the market stands at 111-20. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 84 or so has begun but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.
December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105. Resistance above the market stands at 109-24.
Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.
Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.
XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.
GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.
SLV - December Silver: Silver has bounced off of the 1380 level and the start of an extended drop is near.
Google: I think that a rally to 650 or higher is underway.
6 comments:
I don't like being a crepe hanger, but I have been noticing that your 5ma advancing issues chart has been making a series of lower highs during the current rally. Should we be attaching any significance to this condition?
Dear Carl,
Many readrs ask you to explain your view on the dollar, gold and oil. Why you don't explain?
Thanks and GL.
he does not explain because it is nothing more than a guess without weight. Throw darts and you will have the same success as Futia. Dollar, Gold and Oil oh boy what a contrarian indicator this blog has been.
Carl,
Check out the numbers here: http://www.lowrisk.com/sentiment.htm ;60% bears!!! A total disconnect from recent market action. Supports your bullish view in a big time way.
George
GEORGE:
as someone once commented here a couple of months ago, WHO IS CARL FADING?
the retailers? the media? I don't really know.
I am equities bullish myself, but
What I do know is people ought to be fading his blog when it comes to EUR, JPY, GOLD, SILVER AND OIL!!
EUR new highs today, I guess the next guesstimate will push up the turnaround point to 1.45
To Carl, it would be nice to explain where you're coming from at some point. This blog might be your own personal exercise but I'm afraid it's starting to look ridiculous to the rest of internet, no?
ali abbwa abbass,
The average reader of this blog is invested in equities, not gold or silver or oil. One reason is that gold has just reached its high that was last reached in the 1980's!! Long term return from gold is bascially zero........
Therefore, this blog has indeed been useful to the average bear (I should say bull!) as it certainly has kept me in the game with nice equity gains. Finally, I am looking to close out much of these gains when market makes new highs.
Here's to that!
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