Thursday, April 17, 2008

Guesstimates on April 17, 8:00 am ET

Spiders - June S&P E-mini Futures: I think this market is on its way to 1410 and eventually to 1430-40 in a month or so. My e-mini stop is at 1342, below the ½ retracement for the rally from 1325 and below yesterdays gap open. Support now is at 1350.

QQQ: A rally to 47.50 is underway.

TLT - June Bonds: Resistance is still at 120-20 and I think the bonds are on the way down to 112. I think TLT will drop to 88.

June 10 Year Notes: Resistance is at 120-00. I think the notes are on the way down to 112.

Euro-US Dollar: I now looks like the euro is about to step up into the 1.61-1.62 zone, but I also think that the market is at strong, long term resistance and that the next move will be downward to 1.40.

Dollar-Yen: It now looks like the low at 95.76 will hold. Next upside target is104.00. Support is at 99.00. T

XLE - OIH - USO – May Crude: Crude close well past the 112.50 level so I think 119.00 will be the next stop.

GLD - June Gold: The market should be headed for the 750-80 range. Resistance is still at 940 even though the market move above that level yesterday.

SLV - May Silver: It looks like the silver is headed for 1550 or so. This morning’s high at 1875 will probably mark the end of the rally from 1632.

Google: Google has support at 440 and I think a big move upward is underway. Next short term upside target is 515.


Anonymous said...

Carl,so far you had a max. hypothetical profit of 30 points I bet with you that you will be stopped out again on your ES longs.
Wake up , for the last 4 month I am telling you to sell rallies and
what do you do ?
I realy get the fealing that you are a bit stubborn to say the least.
Remember you would like to make money and not just to be right ??


Anonymous said...

Congrats on GOOG!

Tim- said...

impressive stuff

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


I sometimes wonder, WTH, are you a PermaBull, but other times I agree way too much with you. I still wonder if we will have one more run down to lower levels before we have the most fantastic run higher that WE have ever seen. And that feeling gets reinforced everytime i hear a frustrated PERMABEAR, go on a vitriol. The size of the record short is HUGE on the NYSE. As the record shorts convince themselves of the direction of this market and continue to short into a higher record position - THIS I SUSPECT - will mark the turn. Like the plumber who gives stock advice in a Bull market top(or interim TOP), the vitriolic bear will sell till they can't sell no more...and then the SQUEEZE. The short squeeze will be so hard their mama's gonna feel it.