Out

I just sold my single long unit of the e-minis at 898.25

Long

I just repurchased one e-mini unit at 888.50. I think the market will stay above the 878 level today.

Guesstimates on December 31, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  Yesterday’s move above 878 means that the market is headed for its next upside target at 945. Support today is at 878. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month.  

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway.  

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Resistance above the market stands at 47.50. Crude will probably reach the 32-34 zone before a rally of $20 or more can begin.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

 

Out

I just sold my two long units at 887.50. I think today's action is bullish, but I doubt that a strong uptrend can develop until after the new year begins and volume returns to the market.

Added

I just bought a second e-mini unit at 875.00, making me long two units at an average of 873.25. I am betting that the day's low is in place.

Long

I just purchased one e-mini unit at 871.50. If this trade is good the market won't break 866.

Guesstimates on December 30, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The e-minis moved briefly above 878 last night but fell back this morning.  Even so I think the market is preparing for an upside breakout today.  If I am right about this the 866 level will hold and we’ll see increasing volume as the market moves above 880. The next upside target at 945. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month. 

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.  

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.  

Euro-US Dollar: I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway. 

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Resistance above the market stands at 47.50. Crude will probably reach the 32-34 zone before a rally of $20 or more can begin.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range. 

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Guesstimates on December 29, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The worst I see for this reaction on the downside is the 830-40 zone.  A move above 878 will mean that the market is headed for its next upside target at 945. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month. 

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.  

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.  

Euro-US Dollar: I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is underway. 

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Resistance above the market stands at 47.50. Crude will probably reach the 32-34 zone before a rally of $20 or more can begin.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range. 

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Guesstimates on December 26, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The worst I see for this reaction on the downside is the 830-40 zone.  A move above 878 will mean that the market is headed for its next upside target at 945. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month.  

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has found support near 138.00.  I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude has dropped below 40.00 and this means it will probably continue down to the 32-34 zone.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

 

Guesstimates on December 24, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  Pre-holiday dullness has prevailed all week and makes the market’s preference difficult to read. The worst I see for this reaction on the downside is the 830-40 zone.  A move above 878 will mean that the market is headed for its next upside target at 945. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month.  

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has found support near 138.00.  I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: Crude has dropped below 40.00 and this means it will probably continue down to the 32-34 zone.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Guesstimates on December 23, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market broke below the low of its 875-900 trading range yesterday but then rallied back above 870 on increased volume. I think this means that we shall see a move above 880 today and if we do I think yesterday’s 852 low will hold and support a rally to 945. I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month.  

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has found support near 138.00.  I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The 40.00 level should be support in the February contract. I still think a rally into the 55-60 zone will be the next development.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Guessstimates on December 22, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market has established itself in a slightly lower trading range between 875 and 900. The weakness after Friday’s early rally has nullified the rally’s positive indication and I don’t have any idea which way we will move out of this trading range. Even so, I still think that that the 1000 level will be reached next month.  

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has found support near 138.00.  I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The 40.00 level should be support in the February contract. I still think a rally into the 55-60 zone will be the next development.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Up

The e-minis have climbed above the 900 level and have retraced all of yesterday afternoon's sharp break. This means that the short term trend is again upward. If I am reading this correctly then we have seen the low for the day at 886.50.

Guesstimates on December 19, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market broke below its 885-920 trading range on fairly high volume yesterday and this makes a move down to 835 or so the next likely development.  If this prognosis is correct we shall not see the e-minis trade above 900 today. In any case I think the 1000 level will be reached next month.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has broken well past 135 resistance and will now probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has dropped below 140 this morning but should find suppor near 138.00.  I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The 40.00 level should be support in the February contract. I still think a rally into the 55-60 zone will be the next development.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Down to 830 again

Contrary to my expectation the e-minis have broken down out of the 885-920 trading range a second time on high volume. This means that the market is headed back down at least to the 829 overnight low which was established last week after the previous break down from this same range.

Out

Volume has started to build as the market has sagged below the 895 level so I just sold my e-mini unit at 892.75.

Long

I just bought one e-mini unit at 905.00. I am betting that the 895 level will hold.

Guesstimates on December 18, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market has established itself in an 885-920 trading range, the same range that contained it last week. This time I think the breakout will be to the upside. The 935-45 range is the initial upside target and I think that the 1000 level will be reached next month.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has broken well past 135 resistance and will now probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved past the 144-45 zone but I think it will not move above 150 before a reaction to 140 develops.  The most I can project on the upside is 155, a lower top and an indication that the bear market is still in progress.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The market dropped as low as 38.20 overnight. Switching to February today which is trading 4.50 above January.  I still think a rally into the 55-60 zone will be the next development.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

A day of rest

The market has reestablished the 885-920 trading range in which it fluctuated during the December 8-11 time frame. This time I think the breakout will be to the upside. Today was a dull day with little significant volume on either side of the market. I think tomorrow will be more active and will probably be the day the market breaks out decisively above the 920 level.

Covered at 901.50

Short

I just shorted one unit of the e-minis at 897.00. The volume has started to increase as the market has dropped from its first hour high. I am betting that the high of the day is already in.

Guesstimates on December 17, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  Early this morning the e-minis gave up almost all their gain after yesterday’s Fed news. I sold my long position about an hour ago at 898.75 as reported in the post below. I still think the market is on its way to 1000 but this reaction indicates that yesterday’s high may be a lower top preceding a drop into the 850-60 range first.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has broken well past 135 resistance and will now probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro moved above 139 yesterday and should reach the 144-45 zone before turning lower.  I still think that this is a bear market in the euro and that the market will drop well below 120during the coming months.   

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: A rally into the 55-60 zone is underway. I think the 40.00 support level will hold for at least several months if not longer.   

GLD - February Gold: I still think this is a bear market rally in gold but yesterday’s rally above 850 indicates further strength to 885 before the market resumes its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Out

I just turned on my computer and saw that the market dropped as low as 886.75 early this morning, a much bigger reaction from yesterday's 915 high than I expected. This makes me suspect that a lower top has formed, but even if not I decided to sell my longs at 898.75 a few minutes ago. I still think the market is headed for 1000 but this apparent failure to stage a breakout above the 920 level means that we may be headed to 850-60 first.

Holding Overnight

I am going to try to stick with this e-mini trade past today's close. I'll sell my entire position if the market drops to 886 or if it rallies to 934.50.

Added one unit at 888.50

Long

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 877.50. I expect the market to hold above 867 today.

Guesstimates on December 16, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think the market is on its way to 935 and then to 1000. Support today again stands at 860.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached resistance at 135 and should now begin a sustained downtrend.  

March 10 Year Notes: The notes didn’t make it to 128 but I think this market has begun a sustained downtrend.  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has moved above the 122-135 range but I think it will soon head back down again.  Meantime resistance is at 139.00.  

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: A rally into the 55-60 zone is underway. I think the 40.00 support level will hold for at least several months if not longer.   

GLD - February Gold: Gold should hold below 850 and then resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1085. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Guesstimates on December 15, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think the market is on its way to 935 and then to 1000. Support today stands at 860.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached resistance at 135 and should now begin a sustained downtrend.  

March 10 Year Notes: The notes didn’t make it to 128 but I think this market has begun a sustained downtrend.  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has reached resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: A rally into the 55-60 zone is underway. I think the 40.00 support level will hold for at least several months if not longer.   

GLD - February Gold: Gold should hold below 850 and then resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1085. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Very Bullish Action

I think today's activity, especially after the bad news of the auto bailout failure, is telling us that the market is headed much higher. Last night's low at 829 should hold for quite a while. The e-minis are headed for 1000 and higher over the next few months.

Guesstimates on December 12, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market dropped to 829 last night after the apparent failure of the auto industry bailout bill. Since the 820-30 range was the downside target I think the next substantial move from current levels will be upward.  In any case I shall be comparing the market’s action now to its action after the first failure of the bank bailout bill on September 29 for clues about the technical condition.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached resistance at 135 and should now begin a sustained downtrend.  

March 10 Year Notes: The notes didn’t make it to 128 but I think this market has begun a sustained downtrend.  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen made new lows this morning but I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: A rally into the 55-60 zone has begun and I think the 40.00 support level will hold for at least several months if not longer.   

GLD - February Gold: Gold should hold below 850 and then resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1085. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Down

Contrary to the expectation which I expressed earlier today the e-minis have staged a high volume breakout below the 880 level. This means that the market is on its way to the 820-30 range. The only thing that can change my mind about this now would be an equally high volume move back above 885.

What Can't Go Down Must Go Up

During the past four days the e-minis have been stuck in an unusually narrow (compared to recent volatility) trading range between 884 and 919.

This action invites an application of the "dog that didn't bark" principle. During the past several months every rally has been met by immediate selling after at most five or six days up. But this rally has not and the absence of sellers is being emphasized by this narrow trading range at the top of a 180 point rally from 739.

I think this means that the desperate distress selling that has dominated the market since the end of September has exhausted itself. The buyers are waiting around to see if these desperate sellers return, but I don't think they will, not at current levels at least. If I am right about this the breakout from this narrow range should be to the upside.

Guesstimates on December 11, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  Moving to the March ’09 contract today. Any high volume break below 880 will mean that the market is headed down to 820 again. In any event I still think the futures are headed for the 1000 level over the next month or two.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached resistance at 135 and should now begin a sustained downtrend.  

March 10 Year Notes: The notes didn’t make it to 128 but I think this market has begun a sustained downtrend.  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The 40.00 target has nearly been reached and the next development should be a rally into the 55-60 zone.  

GLD - February Gold: Gold broke past resistance at 810 but should hold below 850 and then resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1085. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Guesstimates on December 10, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The futures are headed for 1000.  First resistance on the way up is at 935. Support today is again at 875. Weakness below that level will mean that the S&P is headed down to 810-20 again.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached resistance at 135 and should now begin a sustained downtrend.  

March 10 Year Notes: The notes didn’t make it to 128 but I think this market has begun a sustained downtrend.  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The 40.00 target has nearly been reached and the next development should be a rally into the 55-60 zone.  

GLD - February Gold: Gold should bounce off of resistance near 810 and resume its moved down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1085. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Guesstimates on December 9, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The futures are headed for 1000.  First resistance on the way up is at 935. Support today is again at 875.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached resistance at 135 and should now begin a sustained downtrend.  

March 10 Year Notes: The notes didn’t make it to 128 but I think this market has begun a sustained downtrend.  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The 40.00 target has nearly been reached and the next development should be a rally into the 55-60 zone.  

GLD - February Gold: Gold has broken support at 760 and now is headed down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Sold second unit at 895.00

Sold one unit at 897.00

Added one unit at 906.25

Long

I just bought one unit of the e-minis at 901.00. I am betting that the first hour's low at 895.25 will not be broken by more than a point or two at worst.

Guesstimates on December 8, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The futures are headed for 1000.  First resistance on the way up is at 935. Support today is 875.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached resistance at 135 and should now begin a sustained downtrend.  

March 10 Year Notes: The notes didn’t make it to 128 but I think this market has begun a sustained downtrend.  

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: The 40.00 target has nearly been reached and the next development should be a rally into the 55-60 zone.  

GLD - February Gold: Gold has broken support at 760 and now is headed down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Move above 850 resistance

The futures just advanced well above the 850 resistance level on high volume. I think this means that the market has resumed its advance to the 1000 level and that Monday's low at 813 will hold for a while.

Out

I covered my short e-mini at 848.25 a couple of minutes ago. This is very bullish action especially in light of the bearish news this morning.

Short Again

I just shorted one e-mini unit at 837.00. I am looking for a return to today's low and don't expect to see the market trade as high as 845 today.

The Employment Number

This morning the employment number showed a drop of 533k. This was much bigger than the 350K drop anticipated by the consensus forecast. Moreover the previous two months' reports were revised downward. This is widely regarded as terrible economic news.

Yet the S&P 500 futures are now actually trading higher than they were just before this morning's number came out. The market seems to have absorbed worse-than-expected economic news very well. This is evidence that a pretty bad recession has already been discounted in the current levels of the market averages. This is one reason why I think the next big move from current levels will be upward.

Out

I just covered my two short units at 821.00 because the market is hesitating too much at this morning's 822 low right after the employment number. The downside is limited early today in any event by Monday's 813 low.

Added another short unit at 828.50

Short

I just sold one e-mini unit at 835.00. The market should stay below 850 today.

Guesstimates on December 5, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The futures are headed down to 750-60. Resistance above the market today is at 850.

QQQ: The Q’s should hold support in the 25-26 zone and then resume their rally to 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has reached its 1998 high at 135 and should stall here before turning lower.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.

GLD - February Gold: Gold has broken support at 760 and now is headed down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Covered

I just covered my short at 862.75. I was expecting an immediate and fast break below 860 but the market has instead rallied back above the breakout point.

Out at 860.50 and short one unit there too

Out one unit at 865.75

Added

I just bought a second e-mini unit at 870.50. I am betting that a breakout above 875.50 is imminent. A move below 866 would change my mind about this.

Rally Boxes

Here are three of the charts you can find on my StockCharts.com public charts page.

The first one shows a set of price boxes I have drawn for the cash S&P's rally up from its 741 low on November 21. The fact that this past Monday's drop ended at the 1/2 point of the first box is evidence that these boxes are now controlling the market's action. If so the next significant resistance should be met in the 970-75 zone.

The next two charts show the 5 and 10 day moving averages of the number of issues traded on the New York Stock Exchange which advance in price each day. The chart of the 5 day moving average is especially interesting. It shows a bullish divergence at the late November low followed by a move to the highest reading seen in more than 5 years. This to me is evidence that a new bull market has begun.

The 10 day moving average does not yet tell the same story, but it also shows a bullish divergence at the November 21 low. If it can climb above the 1900 level on this rally it too will offer evidence that a new bull market has started.

Long

I just bought one e-mini unit at 863.25. I am betting that 850 will hold.

Guesstimates on December 4, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  As long as yesterdays afternoon low at 834 holds I think the market is headed up to 1000.  Next upside target is 925.

QQQ: The Q’s should hold support in the 25-26 zone and then resume their rally to 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.

GLD - February Gold: Support is at 760 and gold should reach 850-60 before resuming its drop to 600.

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Out

I just sold my entire position at my original buy price of 840.50. This market has pulled a dramatic U-turn and I think this means we are going below 800.

Added

I just bought a second e-mini unit at 858.00. I think this market is headed for the 1000 level, but the initial upside target is 935.

Long

I just bought one e-mini unit at 840.50. The market has developed activity to the upside above the open and I think this means that a breakout above the 850 level is imminent.

Guesstimates on December 3, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  Resistance today is at 850.  Strength above that level will convince me that a move to 1000 is underway.  Meantime the odds still favor a drop to 760-70.  

QQQ: The Q’s should hold support in the 25-26 zone and then resume their rally to 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.

GLD - February Gold: Support is at 760 and gold should reach 850-60 before resuming its drop to 600.

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Out

I just covered my second short unit at 835.00.  The short term trend is still downward but strength above 840 tomorrow would change my mind about this. 

Covered one

I just bought back one unit of the e-minis at 845.00.  I don't like the fact that the market is spending so much time above 840 without any sign of a rejection.

Added

I just shorted a second unit of e-minis at 833.

Short

I just sold one e-mini unit at 836. I am betting that the market is at the high end of a 813-837 trading range and that it won't spend much if any time above 845. 

Guesstimates on December 2, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market will probably drop to 760-70 before resuming its rally to 1000.  Today resistance is in the 845-50 zone.

QQQ: The Q’s should hold support in the 25-26 zone and then resume their rally to 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

March 10 Year Notes: The notes will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.

GLD - February Gold: Support is at 760 and gold should reach 850-60 before resuming its drop to 600.

SLV - March Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.

Blog Trading Record

In case you haven't already noticed I keep this blog's E-mini trading record current in the right hand column under "Links". 

My Chart List

You can find a set of charts I maintain on StockCharts.com by following this link. These charts always show the up-to-date price action and I also try to keep my comments on them current. 

Narayana brought my attention to a flawed link which I have since fixed.  Thanks!

Down to 760-70

The drop below 830 means that the market has to go lower, probably to 760-70 before a move to 1000 can develop. 

Out

I just sold my one e-mini unit at 848.25.  I thought the market would make a high volume breakout above 847 but instead we had only moderate volume above the 847 level.  I think that the 830 level will hold and that the market will soon take a step above the 900 level. 

Long

I just purchased one e-mini unit at 850.00. I am betting that we are within 10 points or so of the day's low.

End of a Bull Market

Here is a scan of part of the long term bond market forecast I published in late 1982. The bar chart near the bottom of the page shows the yearly ranges of corporate bond prices over the rising half of two very long term bond market cycles. The first of these cycles began from the 1857 panic low in bond prices and the second from the bond price low in 1920 following the post-World War I inflation. These cycles were then plotted against a time axis which began in 1981, the low point in bond prices which was reached after the great inflation in the U.S. during the 1970's and early 1980's.

Based on these two historical precedents I predicted in 1982 that the bond market would rally and long term interest rates would drop for the next 25-30 years. Now in 2008 we are 27 years into this bull market. As I write this the yield on the 30 year treasury bond is 3.35%, the lowest it has been since 1981 when it had reached a high of 15.31%. The yield on the 1o year treasury note is now 2.85%, also the lowest reading since 1981 when it had reached a high of 15.96%.

I think the drop in yields and the bull market in bond prices which began in 1981 is just about over. We may see the 30 year bond drop a little more, say to 3.00% and the 10 year note to 2.50%. But looking beyond the next six months I think we shall see the start of along term bear market in bonds. I suspect that it will accompany a persistent attempt by governments around the world to inflate themselves out of the long term pension and health care obligations they have assumed toward their older citizens. 

Added later:  In case you are wondering, this is the first time in 27 years that I have said that I thought that the long term trend in bond prices was about to turn downward.

Guesstimates on December 1, 2008

Spiders - December S&P  E-mini Futures:  I think a rally to 1000 is underway.  The next upside target is 925. Support is at 860.

QQQ: The 25-26 zone is strong support and the Q’s have started a rally to 34.

TLT - December Bonds: The 130 level is short term resistance, and the market will probably reach the 1998 high at 135 before it turns lower.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes took out their 2008 high at 120 decisively and will probably reach 128 before turning lower.

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has resistance at 135 and will probably be trading in the 122-135 range for a while.

Dollar-Yen: The yen will move into the 101-102 range before starting another decline.

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: My guess is that the market will stabilize around 40.00 and then rally $20 or so.  

GLD - December Gold: The shorter term trend is gold has turned upward and should continue 850-60. After that I expect the market to begin a drop to 600.

SLV - December Silver: Resistance above the market stands at 1125.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.