Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Guesstimates on December 17, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  Early this morning the e-minis gave up almost all their gain after yesterday’s Fed news. I sold my long position about an hour ago at 898.75 as reported in the post below. I still think the market is on its way to 1000 but this reaction indicates that yesterday’s high may be a lower top preceding a drop into the 850-60 range first.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has broken well past 135 resistance and will now probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro moved above 139 yesterday and should reach the 144-45 zone before turning lower.  I still think that this is a bear market in the euro and that the market will drop well below 120during the coming months.   

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – January Crude: A rally into the 55-60 zone is underway. I think the 40.00 support level will hold for at least several months if not longer.   

GLD - February Gold: I still think this is a bear market rally in gold but yesterday’s rally above 850 indicates further strength to 885 before the market resumes its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.


PM said...

Hi Carl,

Excellent trading. I also dumped my longs for the exact same reason, but for me it was because the market found resistance at the 914.70 level, give or take a few ticks. For today, we will need a close above 914.10 to give me a confirmed uptrend, otherwise the trend is still down.


Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...

well played!

Rick B.

Win said...

Fine trading, Carl! Thank you once again for posting your trades. It takes courage and altruism, and I respect you for it.

I hope you and your family have a relaxing, rejuvenating holiday season.