Friday, December 19, 2008

Guesstimates on December 19, 2008

Spiders - March S&P  E-mini Futures:  The market broke below its 885-920 trading range on fairly high volume yesterday and this makes a move down to 835 or so the next likely development.  If this prognosis is correct we shall not see the e-minis trade above 900 today. In any case I think the 1000 level will be reached next month.

QQQ: The Q’s are headed for 34.

TLT - March Bonds: The market has broken well past 135 resistance and will now probably make it to 145 before any substantial break begins.   

March 10 Year Notes: The 128 resistance will probably be broken and the notes should reach 130 before the market turns lower.   

Euro-US Dollar: The euro has dropped below 140 this morning but should find suppor near 138.00.  I think we shall see a move up to 152.00 or so before the bear market resumes.

Dollar-Yen: I think the 87.50 level will hold and that a rally to 100.00 is imminent.  

XLE - OIH - USO – February Crude: The 40.00 level should be support in the February contract. I still think a rally into the 55-60 zone will be the next development.

GLD - February Gold: The 885 level should prove to be resistance and the market should soon resume its move down into the 550-600 range.  

SLV - March Silver: I still think this is a bear market.  Next resistance above the market is at 1165. Next downside target is 650.

Google: Google has reached the 250-60 target zone which should be the end of its drop from 747.


Anonymous said...

Why do you think the 1000 level should be reached next month?

Anonymous said...

looks like we may get a reaction to the downside on bonds . im longer term bullish bonds yet this
might be a decent short trade over the next few days or weeks .

Anonymous said...

I still believe that the easy tade currently would be to fade the 900 level but I am still looking for 930


PM said...

Hi Carl,

I just went long at 894.00. I may be sorry, but that's the trade for the day.


Kindest regards,


Anonymous said...

Do you keep your e-mini trading record on this blog up to date on a daily basis? Very nice risk managment I see, 144 trades, 59 profits (41%), yet good net profits! Can you clarify how you determine the 70% gain on the $15K account?

T.C.B. said...

Good morning Mr. F.
If this market should reach 1,000.
It will likely do so before the end of the year...IMV...
Then after chopping around a few weeks, head down again...
Happy trading!

Carl Futia said...

Dear 10:30 am

I update the trading results every day. Click on "Account and Position Size" in the right hand column of the blog to get an explanation of how the returns are calculated.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Carl! Mr. 10:30 am (now Mr. 10:49 am ny time)