Monday, March 08, 2010
Quiet
The e-minis have traded in a 4 point range thus far today. The market is unusually quiet. It has been my experience that temporary tops occur when activity is relatively high, not when it is relatively low. So the market's dullness makes me think that prices have to advance further before a reaction as big as 20 points can develop. For the time being I see support in the 1131-33 range. I think we shall see the e-minis trade above 1150 during the next couple of days. This would be a breakout above the January 11 top at 1148 and should bring with it a noticeable jump in activity.
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12 comments:
Carl,
Seems we are "overbot" here but that's never stopped anyone.
Looking at 1157 as next major resistence on SP. That is the 161.8 retrace
Just my 2cents
Quiet is an understatement – there was some paper buyers in the Spoos on the open but after that, even on the close, there was absolutely no paper. Could it be that the recent rally is just correcting with sideways quiet action? – Maybe but lack of trading on a Monday to this degree without a big report or FMOC meeting is highly unusual.
I ran an SPX Chart today, daily, and I see a possible 4 to 5 wave up and a pause...I kind of see Carl's thinking on 1200 as this is smack dab in the middle so some earlier price action on the way down since March. My trading partner and I think that this may pause and the we will re-seek intermediate highs...where we go from there anyone knows!!??
1/11/10..narrow range and low volume marked the top...it does and it can even now.
Today, there was a C=A "Zig-Zag" that completed itself on the Russell 2000 (RUT), with the "C" wave having started from the early July lows progressing in a 5-wave ending diagonal pattern in which C=A at 667.79
Today's RUT high was 668.16
Thanks Carl
And I - are you saying we are headed down????
AndI- Do you think we're headed down?????
1] On daily charts for SPY, today's volume on SPY equalled the low volume on Jan 14, and that was just prior to the January decline.
2] On weekly chart for SPY, we are backtesting, i.e. kissing goodbye to the upward channel, from below.
3] If the decline from Jan 15, 2009 was wave 1, we should be completing wave 2 up. After 2 up comes 3 down.
As this manipulated market has a history of violating TA, through timely intervention, all of the above 3 observations can be violated by continued irrational buying. However, Mutual Funds are at historic low cash levels of 4% or so. Banks are under pressure for their balance sheet fraud. So, if a major move down does not start, we can only blame the FED, and, of course, Goldman Suchs, JPM etc. for propping up the market through their proprietary or "prop" trading.
I do see today's trading as mildly bullish, where it was quietly building strength. Notice how $SPX was almost unchanged while the # of NYSE adv-dec issues went up? In addition, the blog author noted that "in the seemingly quite [sic] day, we still have 11 stocks moved up over 2 std" while only 1 went down over 2 std:
http://yeforex.blogspot.com/2010/03/bulls-vs-bears-and-market-summary-on-8.html
I would respect Carl's calls.. No matter what TA or waves tell me.
kishore when you read the charts do you mark the periods where there was "timely intervention" and ignore those days? and how exactly do you know when that happens? i thought you had gone away?
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