Friday, June 01, 2012

Guesstimates on June 1, 2012

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1275-1290. The October 2011 top at 1289.25 is strong support. I think a base building period is nearly complete. The drop this morning on the employment news below the May 21 low sets ups bullish divergences on my advancing issues oscillators. Given the heavily bearish market sentiment I think this means that a big rally is imminent.  
QQQ:  Support now is at 59.50. The drop from 68.50 is nearly over and should be followed by a move to new bull market highs.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is back to the low of its recent multi-month trading range. I still think that the 10 year yield has started a move to  3.00%.  
Euro-US Dollar: The Euro has reached 126.00 support.  I think the market will drop to 1.2250 before any rally of more than 200 pips develops.  
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
July  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is about to start.  
SLV - July Silver: The market is getting close to its December low at 26.27 where a sustained move up is likely to start.
Google: Google broke support at 590 and is now headed for its January low at 562. From there the market should resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even as the S&P and the Dow have broken below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top instead of to 520 as I had thought previously. 


Enky Nakamura said...

10 Year T-Note at 1.47%, lowest I have ever seen. I'm sure money fleeing Europe and now the bad data today is helping push down yields. Not to long ago Bill Gross was talking about higher rates for the long end. Dont'you think Carl that a flat yield curve is a confirmation that we are again in a recession?

dcatlowpj said...

Buy when fear is rampant. It COULD BE that this time, contrary trades may not work. I see more support below us, but not much. There is a gap there of very little volume, support, etc. That being said, I will be long on SPY CALLS early next week to take advantage of the fear trade. WE SHALL SEE!

Unknown said...

Maybe you are right but don't write "imminent"... because time is money and imminent is not "soon"

Win said...

Carl, bounce coming but heavy resistance in the 1350-60 zone. I will sell there and go short. I think we're probably in a bear market now.

john said...

Desk color/trading update – the sell-off for most of May was related to Europe. Spain and Bankia
but in particular Greece and the prospect of a country leaving the EMU were the big drivers behind
equity weakness for most of the last month. This initial phase of the tape decline was relatively
relaxed and lacked broad participation. Lately though psychology has evolved to the point where
Europe is almost an after thought and the big fear concerns general growth and whether a period of persistent macro uncertainty has dealt a fatal blow to the (extremely fragile) economic recovery. The
selling over the last week wasn’t especially panicked or rushed but seems to be expanding (i.e. people
who were on the sidelines for most of early/mid-May are now starting to reduce long exposure just a
bit). Stocks aren’t as responsive to chatter about European responses (back in May these headlines
would always cause at least a brief short squeeze) both because faith in the effectiveness of policy is
abating but also as it seems the economy may be too far gone for any action to really matter. The
sell-off this week was very much a “growth” one – all the most economically sensitive areas saw the
steepest declines (banks, tech, industrials, materials, energy). All that said the desk actually saw
vanillas stepping into the weakness during the depths of Friday’s session. Sentiment is weird –
people are certainly becoming more cautious but the negativity isn’t like it was last summer and
fall pre the LTROs (this could actually be a near-term negative).
YOU are the BEST, Sir and Thank You for all your teachings.I do respect you !

Nav said...

The S&P is down ~10% from the recent high (1422 on 4/2), officially
entering “correction” territory. Unfortunately, summer 2012 appears to be playing out in a fashion
similar to last year.