Thursday, June 21, 2012

Guesstimates on June 21, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1347-1367. A move to new bull market highs is underway.  
QQQ:  A move to new bull market highs is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. Yields moved up prior to and after yesterday's Fed news so I conclude the market thinks the Fed's easing actions will have the desired effect. If so yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: The market has bounced off of 1.2250 support. Resistance above the market is now at 1.2760. EU survival will require a much lower euro than we see now. I think the market will eventually drop well below 1.1500.   
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
August  Crude: The market is headed  down to  75.   
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  
SLV - July Silver: A sustained move up is underway.
Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 (I think the reported 522.16 low was a bad tick!) even while the S&P and the Dow broke below their corresponding lows. This is a very bullish development. It makes me think the AAPL is now in fact headed above its 644 top. 


Laurence said...

Awfully close to a breakout fakeout here on SPX

ARJ said...


Trading quite below your projected range so far. This market very binary, another big trend down day in the making, and hope ES'd halt the dump here.

How you'd see bulls overcoming bad economical data comes out globally, and rally in short term/summer weak seasonal period? If bulls win here, it'd remarkable. Thx for your insights!

Unknown said...

Carl, how did you arrive at a target of 75 for crude?