Thursday, June 28, 2012

Guesstimates on June 28, 2012

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1314-1328.  I think the drop from 1357 ended at 1302.50 on June 25.  A move to new bull market highs is underway.  
QQQ:  A move to new bull market highs is underway.
TNX (ten year note yield):  The 10 year yield is trading below  the low of its recent multi-month trading range. Yields moved up prior to and after last week's Fed news so I conclude the market thinks the Fed's easing actions will have the desired effect. If so yields will head back up to 3.00% and higher.   
Euro-US Dollar: Resistance above the market is still at 1.2760. The market looks like it is on its way to 1.1900.    
Dollar-Yen: This market is headed for 75 and lower.
August  Crude: Crude oil is approaching  what should be strong support near the 75 level.  From there a rally of $15 or so will be likely before the market resumes its long term trend to still lower prices.    
GLD – August Gold:   The market has dropped to the vicinity of the September and December low points at 1544 and 1529. I think a sustained up move is underway.  
SLV - July Silver: A sustained move up is underway.
Google: Google should hold support near 562 and then  resume its move up to 750.
Apple: So far AAPL has held well above its low at 528 and has traded sideways even as the broader averages have dropped during the past few days. This is a sign of strength and I think the market is headed above its 644 top.  

1 comment:

Dave Trader said...

I understand your bullish scenario.
At what level would you change to a bearish stance? If S&P break below 1260, would you turn bearish?