Wednesday, June 27, 2012

headed up

Here is an hourly bar chart of the cash S&P 500. I discussed this chart last week.

The green lettering highlights the head and shoulders base which I think the market formed beginning with its May 21 low point. The neckline (red dash line) formed at 1335 and the market broke out well above that level on a rally which took it to 1365.

Normally the reaction following a breakout above the neckline stops when it encounters support at the neckline. But this time the S&P dropped well below that level. However the break did stop above the low associated with the right shoulder of this head and shoulders base. A drop below the right shoulder would mean that the breakout above the neckline was a so-called "false" move and the implication then would be that the market would drop to the level of the head or even slightly lower.

However it looks to me that support at the right shoulder has held and that the market is headed up once more. I expect this swing to at least reach the standard head and shoulders target which in this case is about the 1405 level (first pair of blue dash rectangles).

A slightly higher target is provided making the 1365 breakout rally high the midpoint of the rally from the low this past Tuesday (second pair of blue dash rectangles). This gives a 1410 target. Finally one can estimate a still higher target by making the 1365 level the midpoint of the move up from the June 4 low. This target does not appear on the chart above but stands at the 1460 level. It is this last target which I think the market will reach over the next couple of months.

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