Thursday, January 10, 2013

Guesstimates on January 10, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1457-1468. The market turned up strongly on the partial resolution of fiscal cliff worries. I see 1488 as a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.
February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.
February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.
March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  During the latest rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. So far it has also been unable to climb back above its 200 day moving average. This makes it likely that the next break will carry APPL below 500. Meantime resistance above the market is at 565.

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