Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Guesstimates on January 15, 2013

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1454-1464. I see 1488 as a conservative and 1546 as an optimistic upside target.
QQQ:  The Q's are now headed for 73.
TNX (ten year note yield): Bond yields are going much higher as the market begins to anticipate stronger economic growth. The first upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: The ECB and the Fed are following polices which will move the Euro to 1.40 or higher.  Next upside target is 1.35. Support is at 1.2670.
Dollar-Yen: I think this bull market has a lot further to go, probably to 96 or so.
February Crude:  I think this market is headed for 70 and lower. Resistance above the market is at 95.
February Gold:  A repetition of the size of the last rally would put gold up to 1715. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned up.
March Silver: The last rally in silver was about 350 points. A similar rally now would put the market up to 33.30. Any more strength than that will mean that the longer term trend has turned upward.
Google: There are several old tops in the 640-670 range which should be strong support for a move up to 800 and higher.
Apple:  During the latest rally in the averages AAPL has underperformed the market and GOOG. So far it has also been unable to climb back above its 200 day moving average. This makes it likely that the next break will carry APPL below 500. Longer term downside target is 350. Meantime resistance above the market is at 565.


Adsense said...

Hi Carl
I mentioned this a few months back and i think it bears some thought today . First of all though , the chart i am looking at is a combination of the dow and the transports nyse spx oex ndx and sox
indexes all added together .
For the most part last year was the sideways movement of pts 15 though 20
. If im correct then the point 20 low was on dec 31 2012 . and we are now heading up towards point 21 . I do realize this type of analysis is not conventional thinking . the reason im labeling this as point 21 is it is into new high territory counting from the july 1 2010 lows . essentially the market has already broken out despite the individual divergences .
so im with you with the bullish view how ever the time counts are now becoming skewed so its a bit of a tough call from here . lastly
i have some very long term slow indicators i look at that are near
very long term oversold readings from an early feb 2011 high , the data on this indicator goes back to 1928. as of today this indicator has not yet turned up and is into territory that has marked many lows since 1936 .
bottom line this extension higher if it comes may become longer then many expect as many turns in this indicator take a year to 2 years before even getting into the normal upper range .
food for thought

Anonymous said...

Market Timer Tom DeMark said today on CNBC that AAPL had hit his $495 downside target and that the LOW was made today (possibly tomorrow)and that he would expect a 22% rally back up to $600.

Remember, DeMark is not a technician. He prides himself in being a "timer".