Important

I will be out of my office Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday of this week. I expect to return Monday, August 5.

Guesstimates on July 30, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1682-95.  It looks like Friday’s 1670.50 low ended the drop from 1695.50. Next upside target is 1720. The ES is headed to my long standing target of 1775 and possibly higher over the coming months.

QQQ:  Upside target is 79.

TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like a move up to 1.400 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

September Crude:  Crude is stalling at 108 resistance.  

December Gold:  I think a rally of $200-300 is underway.    

September Silver: The 18.00 level is support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

Guesstimates on July 29, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1680-94.  It looks like Friday’s 1670.50 low ended the drop from 1695.50. Next upside target is 1720. The ES is headed to my long standing target of 1775 and possibly higher over the coming months.

QQQ:  Upside target is 79.

TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: It looks like a move up to 1.400 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

September Crude:  Crude is stalling at 108 resistance.  

August Gold:  I think a rally of $200-300 is underway.    

September Silver: The 18.00 level is support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

reaction then higher

Here is an hourly chart of the cash S&P 500 covering the past four months of trading activity.

As you can see this market average has rallied to a new bull market and historical high near 1698. I think it will move still higher over the coming months with 1775 my conservative target and 1900 as the more optimistic target. At 1900 the move up from the June 2013 low would equal the size of the November 2012-May 2013 rally.

On the way up there will be reactions and one of these started a few days ago. If it were to equal the size of the biggest reaction on the way up from the June 24 low the S&P would drop to 1674 or so before moving above the 1700 level (blue rectangles.  There is also support at the July 17 low near 1672 (green line).

The ES drop visibly below 1672 it will probably continue downward to the midpoint of the rally from the June low which currently stands near 1628 (purple line).

In any case there is no sign yet that the bull market which started from 666 in March of 2009 is over. So far it has lasted 52 months, quite a bit longer than a normal bull market. But the 2002-2007 bull market was also unusually long and lasted 60 months. As I have mentioned in previous posts George Lindsay time periods suggest a bull market top this fall or early next year so there is plenty of time left for the current rally to  extend to the 1774 and 1900 upside targets.

Guesstimates on July 26, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1667-1682.  So far selling pressure on the drop from 1695.50 has been light. Support is at 1665 and from there the market is likely to rally above 1700. The ES is headed to my long standing target of 1775 and possibly higher over the coming months.

QQQ:  Upside target is 79.

TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.

Euro-US Dollar: The market has put in three low points near 1.2800 and now has been trading for several days above its 20 day moving average. It looks like a move up to 1.400 is underway.

Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen is headed for 107.00.

September Crude:  Crude is stalling at 108 resistance.  

August Gold:  I think a rally of $200-300 is underway.    

September Silver: The 18.00 level is support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.

Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.

Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.