Monday, July 15, 2013

Guesstimates on July 15, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1670-80. The market has more than retraced the 4 day drop which followed the last Fed meeting. This combination of straight-down followed by straight up price action looks like a decisive rejection of the June 24 low point. This in turn implies that the ES is headed to my long standing target of 1775 and possibly higher.
QQQ:  Upside target is 79.
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is now headed for 1.2400. Resistance above the market is at 1.3280
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.
August Crude:  Crude has nearly reached 108 resistance.  
August Gold:  I think a rally of$200-300 is underway.    
September Silver: The 18.00 level is now support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

1 comment:

Rob said...

I'm thinking more and more that your first assessment was correct, Carl, that there would be another move down to the final low and then that bull march into next year. My long/short numbers remained pretty low after that low, until the end of this past week, when they shot up to over 10, a number suggesting an important high is near. This would make sense, as people not in the market were waiting to see if the market could reach new highs before getting in, and shorts were seeing this as the time to get out. So I do smell a rat here.