Tuesday, July 02, 2013

Guesstimates on July 2, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1594-1610. It looks like the ES is going to drop for a couple of days but I think this drop will stop above 1553 and be followed by a rally to 1630 or so. Bearish sentiment is still not high enough to suggest that the drop from the May 22 top is over.
QQQ:  Downside target is 70.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a low. Next support is 66.50.  
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The market has resumed its move up to 1.4000. Support at 1.3080 has been broken but the drop from 1.34 has now matched the size of the drop which started in May. So I expect support at 1.2950 to hold.
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.
August Crude:  As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
August Gold:  Gold has dropped a little below the 1200-50 target zone. There is short term support near 1160 and I think a rally of$200-300 is like to start soon.    
September Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 has been reached and exceeded. The 18.00 level is now support and I expect a rally to 24.00 or so to begin soon.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.


Anonymous said...

Wed, Jul 03, 2013 Fri, Jul 05, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 04/30/2018 - 03/31/2019 $4.75 - $5.75 billion

With the huge Treasury Purchases scheduled for tomorrow and the market closing early at 1:00 pm and the low holiday volume, anything the bears may have to wait. But, if the market drops today, the bulls can buy it all cheaper tomorrow. The central banks have really messed up this market!

Andy said...

The MA50 at 1624 is acting as the short term resistance for now. Carl's level of 1630-1640 and then reversing would coincide perfectly with the roof of the trend channel and fooling the last of the dumb money in. I even see the SP500 doing a short visit above the trend channel roof which in hindsight will be regarded as a false breakout. Just to get a few more in on the longside.