Tuesday, July 09, 2013

Guesstimates on July 9, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1637-50. The ES put in a bullish day Friday in response to the bearish employment number. It has put in nearly a complete retracement of the 4 day drop which followed the last Fed meeting. This combination of straight-down followed by straight up price action looks like a decisive rejection of the June 24 low point. This in turn implies that the ES is headed above 1700, probably to my long standing target of 1775.
QQQ:  Upside target is 79.
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: Support at 1.2950 was broken decisively on the ECB interest rate guidance. I think the market is now headed for 1.2400.  
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.
August Crude:  Resistance above the market is at 103. As long as crude does not spend much time above 100 I will stick with my view that it is headed below 70.
August Gold:  Gold has dropped a little below the 1200-50 target zone. There is short term support near 1160 and I think a rally of$200-300 is underway.    
September Silver: Initial downside target is 20.00 has been reached and exceeded. The 18.00 level is now support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

1 comment:

Kelly Blaine said...

Retracing a 4 day drop in 10 days is the sign of a weakening market...always has been, always will be. I'm amazed at how many unfilled gaps are present in the market....the longer term implications are horrific for this type action.