Tuesday, July 16, 2013

Guesstimates on July 16, 2013

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today’s range estimate is 1675-84. The market has more than retraced the 4 day drop which followed the last Fed meeting. This combination of straight-down followed by straight up price action looks like a decisive rejection of the June 24 low point. This in turn implies that the ES is headed to my long standing target of 1775 and possibly higher.
QQQ:  Upside target is 79.
TNX (ten year note yield): The upside yield target for the 10 year is 2.85 % but I think the market will move past this level to 3.50% over the next few months.
Euro-US Dollar: The market has put in three low points near 1.2800 and now has started to trade above its 20 day moving average. A full day’s range above that moving average after three lows would tell me that a move up to 1.400 has started
Dollar-Yen: The dollar-yen has held support at 94.50. The next upside target is 107.00.
August Crude:  Crude has nearly reached 108 resistance.  
August Gold:  I think a rally of$200-300 is underway.    
September Silver: The 18.00 level is now support and a rally to 24.00 or so is underway.
Google: Support is at 800 and I think the next step up will carry GOOG to 975.
Apple:  Next downside target is 350. Resistance is at 460.

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