Eurodollars

The daily chart you see above shows my current box analysis for the December 2005 Eurodollar futures. The bear market boxes are 48 ticks high and have been descending from the June 2003 high at 99.09. In my last post on the Eurodollars I said that the market would probably resume its bearish trend once the 96.33 level was reached. Now I think that there may be a little more upside potential so I want to update the last analysis.

I've drawn in purple the staircase levels for the rally from the March 2005 lows. Last Friday the market bounced off the 1/4 point of a box at 96.33. This is only a 1/4 box progress past the previous top at 96.20 on April 19 and shows that the Euros are much closer to their ultimate rally top than are the bonds and notes.

Since the preceding top was only a 1/4 box progression from the preceding top the upcoming low will be only a 1/4 box progression from the preceding low. This would put the upcoming low at 96.09. The rally from there will probably carry the market to the 1/2 point of the next higher box at 96.45. After that level is reached I expect the bear market in the Eurodollar to resume.