Thursday, October 13, 2005

Guesstimates on October 13, 8:45 am ET

December S&P Futures: The market is trading a little below the bottom of its box at 1180 as I write this.  My best estimate for the actual low was 1178 and it that doesn’t work out I think the market will break the London bombing low at 1167 by a couple of points and then rally strongly. In any case a sustained rally to new bull market highs will start soon

December Bonds: The interest rate markets continue to be much weaker than I have been expecting. The move down from the late August top is now as long as the initial drop from the early June top.  I still think a strong will start soon and if so the market should not drop below 112-00.

December 10 Year Notes: The August 8 low at 109-02 was broken this morning. I think this breakdown is temporary and that a strong rally will soon begin.

December Eurocurrency: The 121.80 level is resistance and the next low should be in the 117.50 to 118.50 range. After that a rally to 124 is likely.

November Crude: Prices should reach 64.40 resistance today and then resume its drop to 55.50.

December Gold: Headed for short term resistance at 488. Support is at 466.

Google: 300 is support; upside target is 343.  

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