Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Guesstimates on September 19, 8:50 am ET

Spiders - December S&P Futures: The Fed new yesterday afternoon pushed the market into a decisive upside breakout past the early August reaction high. This means that the futures will rally to 1560 and the Spiders will rally to 155 before another break of 50 (respectively 5) points can develop. The S&P’s and Spiders are in the middle of a move which will establish new bull market highs by a substantial margin.

QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.

TLT - December Bonds: As long as the bonds don’t close below the 112-00 level I shall expect another move up to the 114-24 level before a more extended drop begins. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 86 or so has begun, but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.

December 10 Year Notes: The notes should continue upward to 111-08. Support is at 109-24.

Euro-US Dollar: The market is headed for the 141.00 level.

Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.

XLE - OIH - USO – October Crude: Crude is trading above 82.00 this morning but I think the market will soon drop to the 70 level or lower. hit 81.00 early this morning. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling near 73 and the next big move will be downward.

GLD - December Gold: Gold has reached 735, the top it established in May of 2006. I think a substantial drop is about to start.

SLV - December Silver: Silver is near the 1330 target and I think a substantial drop is about to begin. looks like it is headed for the 1330 level. I think silver will soon start a drop which will carry it below 900 and SLV below 90.

Google: I think that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.

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