Spiders - December S&P Futures: Short term support stands at 1522. Resistance above the market is at 1560 (for the Spiders these levels are 151 and 155 respectively). The S&P’s and Spiders are in the middle of a move which will establish new bull market highs by a substantial margin.
QQQQ: The Q’s should reach 52.50, a new bull market high, before a reaction of a couple of points sets in.
TLT - December Bonds: The bonds are headed down to the 106-107 zone. TLT hit 91, a full 10 points above its June low. This is important resistance and a drop to 84 or so has begun but I now expect the June low at 81.20 to hold.
December 10 Year Notes: The notes are headed down to 105.
Euro-US Dollar: The market has reached the 141.00 level and I expect a significant drop from that level.
Dollar-Yen: Support in the yen is at 113.25. Looking ahead several months I expect to see the 130 level during the next 12 months.
XLE - OIH - USO – November Crude: Switching to the November contract. The 81.00 level is strong resistance. The next significant move should be downward to 70 and below. The upside target for USO is 62. In OIH the next big move will be downward. XLE is stalling and the next big move will be downward.
GLD - December Gold: Gold should bounce off of strong resistance in the 750-55 zone and begin an extended decline. This breakout to new bull market highs is one that should be faded.
SLV - December Silver: Silver should bounce off of the 1380 level and start an extended drop.
Google: I think that a rally to 600 or higher is underway.
6 comments:
Carl,
I do not disagree with your Euro call to go lower in the short run. In fact it kinda makes sense to me, but could you explain your justification in more detail.
I am rather concerned about the dollar long run, but I think this has gotten a little over done in the short run. Longer term I am not optimistic on the dollar at all.
any possibility latest rally was a bear market rally into domed house point #25?
thanks
690, 730, 750 now.....you are never wrong like this but following your call would cost dear
Carl,
After reading your blog for a few weeks I understand what techniques you are using that lead you to believe we have one more leg up in the stock market before peaking.
However, I have not been able to see how that same technique leades to bearishness for Oil & Gold.
Using George Lindsay's techniques - what leads you to be so bearish on gold/oil?
Just drawing general trend lines & moving averages on weekly & monthly charts show them to be in very strong bull trends.
-Lou
Carl, as you like to be an contrarian, if you read marketwatch.com and other financial websites, you read about "this rally's got more room to run" and "expect this market to run higher until the quarter end market up," don't you think that the market would actually go down because everyone is so bullish?
Or the contrarian in you only works when the market goes down, but not when it goes up?
Lou, I too want the analysis behind the bear call on gold even though my gut tells me gold will drop and the USD will strengthen. Lou, I worry when internation commidities of great importance are charted and projections made. Made without regard to international politics, current account and other big-ticket issues.
Reversion to the mean would have gold drop from here, no?
The Fed and it's opaque cohorts have every motivation and self interest to short gold and buy USD. This is an old rant by the gold bugs to justify the end of 2006 into 2007 slump. Might this old rant make a come back?
Carl?
curt
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