Spiders - September S&P E-mini Futures: I expect the rally from 1200 to reach the 1275 level before any significant reaction of 30 points or so sets in. There are many bullish divergences in the advancing issues numbers which themselves are still at extreme “oversold” levels. This together with the gloomy state of sentiment convinces me that this rally is the first stage of a very big move which will carry the market to 1500.
QQQ: Support remains at 44.00. Resistance stands at 47.50. During the next few months the market should rally to 55 or higher.
TLT - September Bonds: Support is at 115-00 and as long as that holds I’ll stick with my 118-00 upside target.
September 10 Year Notes: Support is at 113-24 and as long as that holds I’ll stick with my 117-16 upside target.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the market is on its way to 163. Support is at 155.80.
Dollar-Yen: The yen is headed for 103.50. From there the rally to 112.00 will resume.
XLE - OIH - USO – August Crude: Crude is headed for 160-165. Support is at 133.
GLD - August Gold: I think the market is headed back to 1000. Support is at 915.
SLV - September Silver: I think silver is the way to the 2100 level.
Google: I think the reaction in GOOG is complete and that the move above the 750 level is underway.
11 comments:
Hi Carl,
My work tells me that if the September futures close today above 1257.90 or above 1242.40 on Friday, then a buy signal will occur and this rally will continue. If such a close takes place, then we can expect the first serious selling to enter the market at the 1317.70 level (give or take a handful of points), provided we actually reach that level, but the buy signal itself would remain intact until another sell signal is issued. Mind you, 1317.70 is NOT a target in any way, just a price zone above the market where we can expect heavy selling to appear during the first leg of this rally, and provided we actually reach that level.
Thank you.
Kindest regards,
PM
i think the eurusd is headed for 1.5600 and then lower below 1.50 in agreement with Carl's first guesstimate. Crude oil is headed for 121 and 96 after while 144 is strong resistance, in my opinion. I think gold has topped out and is headed down from 987 onward and heading for 697 USD. Good trading all !MC
Carl, I still don't understand how crude rallying to $160+ can help the stock market to rally - quite the opposite I would think.
tim,
This is one area I disagree with Carl. Crude, gasoline, and nat gas have bearish chart patterns. Nat gas was the first to break a trendline around 13, and its 200 hour moving average. Gasoline and oil broke the 200 hour moving averages this week. I have found those to be good signals, and this is the first time they have been below that average since last year.
Also, big oil stocks like XOM, CVX, and COP have ugly charts, they all topped in May, and have fallen sharply. They are now below their 200 day moving averages. They tend to lead oil I think, and it looks like they have this time.
Much lower energy prices would also act as a tax cut, an economic stimulus, which would then also help the dollar, which would also further hurt oil prices. This is a possible scenario, maybe not shared by many, but one the bears don't even consider.
Just my 2 cents.
Hi Carl,
I just took a long position at 1255.00 in the September contract. This is a bit more risky since the market has already rallied 62 points from yesterday's low, but I take every signal regardless of how the market serves it to me. We will need a close today above 1257.90 or a close tomorrow above 1242.40 for a confirmed buy signal. As long as we close well above 1242.40, I will remain long this position overnight.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
Hi Carl,
I have no problem saying I was wrong. I stopped out of all my longs at 1247.00, the market should not be this weak after hours, but I still did pretty well the past two days considering my first long was at 1211.50 yesterday morning and giving some back from 1255.00. I will reassess after the selling subsides. We still need a close above 1242.40 tomorrow to confirm a buy signal. Close is not good enough.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
until GS closes above today's high, the potential for a sharp move to 127 exists... i was hoping mr futia was correct;but, once again at today's highs the geometry of the market forced me to the short side once again(qqqq, xlf,gs,dia).. i was surprised;but forced by my methodology covered my long in DTO today as USO bottomed.not a call on future direction,i am just a target trader...
carl,
i think you should forget about 750 target on GOOG and look for lower target..GOOG went down as low as 470 after hours. so there goes 500 support level
Dear 7:57 pm,
This is not amateur hour. Obviously Carl's last comments on GOOG were made pre-market, well before GOOG earnings came out after the close. If you disagree with a view you can not keep silent then wait for the price to move your way and suddenly say "I told you so". If anything, how the market digests GOOG earnings tomorrow (along with MER and C earnings) will be the best message of all for how GOOG will fare going forward. Imagine if GOOG opens below 500 and closes back at 533 with tremendous volume but unchanged on the day, then what? In fact if this is the outcome, the upside target may then be much higher than 750$. Sometimes I look forward to initially perceived negative news for my longs to confirm I am in a strong position. In any case, I guess Carl is being fair and letting both the pro's and the amateur's have their say on his blog!
C.Fuligni
Google is hardly a broken company, but it's awfully hard to grow a $16B (revenue) company by 40%/yr in a bad economy when your business is selling advertising.
Shrinking disposable income-->people buy less stuff online-->Google suffers (only relative to expectations, of course)
I dumped my GOOG at $540 last week and am looking forward to buying it back at $450 sometime in the next 3 months. If I were a long-term holder of the stock, I certainly wouldn't be worried though.
Hi Carl,
I reinstated my longs at 1255.00 and wrote some at the money calls for protection, just in case. I still think we’re going higher from here but we still need a close today above 1242.40 to confirm this.
Thanks.
Kindest regards,
PM
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