Friday, July 02, 2010

Guesstimates on July 2, 2010

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1010-1030. The odds are better than even that yesterday's low at 1006 ended the drop from 1216. Even if it didn't the worst I see on the downside is 990. Strength above 1050 would mean the low has been established and that a new up leg in the bull market has started.

QQQ: Support is at 42.00. The next move up will carry to 54.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): Long term support is at 3.85%. The bonds will soon begin a move to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): Long term support is at 2.90%. I think that the notes will soon begin a swing up to 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: A move into the 135-40 zone is underway.

Dollar-Yen: A rally to 100.00 is underway. Support is at 87.00.

August Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – August Gold: The odds are that the market will continue upward to 1320. I still expect to see 875 before 1400. Support stands in the 1160-70 range.

SLV - July Silver: I think silver will rally to 21.50 and then begin a move to 10.oo.

Google: The 430 level is now support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 will begin soon.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 240.


dcatlowpj said...

Carl, I am buying into your range boxes from the close/late yesterday (your post here).....the lower range box projects a low, if not today, then in the short term, of under $1000....there seems to be a self-fulfilling 980 that is mentioned a could be under 900, for that matter. Today will be chop.

Bill said...

Earnings season is coming. It will determine the market's fate, whether it's heading to 1100 or to 900.

Larry said...

Carl, I have been following your blog for a few years and still I am amazed when your range estimates are almost to the tick. For example, today's range estimate was 1010-1030. The actual high for the SPX futures was 1029 and the low was 1010.75. What more can one ask for.

There have been many negative comments over the last few weeks about your bullish forecast. All I ask is that you keep doing what you are doing because you do extremely well (and it is greatly appreciated).