Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Update

Here is a daily chart of the September e-minis. I think that the 1002.75 low in early July ended the drop from the April 26 high. The first leg up nearly matched the size of the rally from the May 25 low at 1032 to the June 21 high at 1129 and established the initial 96 point box of the new uptrend (lower blue rectangle). A three day drop has carried the ES down to the midpoint of the first box (lower blue dash line). This midpoint is also in the general vicinity of three previous lows (horizontal green dash lines).

I am guessing that today's low at 1050.75 will hold, but even if it doesn't the worst I see on the downside is 1035 or so. Assuming today's low does hold I have drawn an upward sloping trend channel. A similarly paced advance from today's low would carry the second up leg to the 1145-50 zone, the midpoint of the second box, the level that would match the size of the first up leg, and a point near the upper channel line (green oval).

2 comments:

extrader said...

Carl i have 1051 at 38% Fib and then 1032 at 23% fib retracements... So yes your 1035 estimate may get down there!

ex

deadcow said...

why would you assume that it would go higer since you already ca see 4 lower lows ? it makes no sense technically.