Thursday, July 15, 2010
Here is an hourly chart showing 24 hour trading in the e-minis. The market has bounced off the initial target near the descending red trend line around the 1100 level. It has dropped about 23 points from its high this morning made after the initial employment claims number came out. This is just a tad less that the previous biggest reaction of 25 points (blue rectangles). Today's low (thus far) is just a couple of points above the rising green dash trend line. So I think the market is going to be supported near 1075 (lower green oval) and then begin another swing upward.
The next upside target is roughly 1130 (higher green oval). That level is near the top of the rising trend channel and at the level of the June 21 high of 1129.75 (horizontal red dash line). It is also worth noting that 1127 is the midpoint of the 2007-09 bear market which dropped prices from 1587 to 666.
I think the ES is in the very early stages of an extended up move. I think this move upward will last into the first part of 2011 and carry the S&P 500 to at least the 1340 level.