Friday, December 10, 2010

Guesstimates on December 10, 2010

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1225-1238. I think the short term trend is still upward. Next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.

QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.

GLD – December Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.

SLV - December Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.


R said...

As of yesterday, MZM (money supply at zero maturity- basically dollar currency as opposed treasury instruments at non-zero interest rates) was growing at a healthy(?) 8 %. MZM was growing at the rate of 4+ % during Aug Sep and 11-12 % during the past two months. My understanding is that the pace of the market climb will slow and not reverse, until MZM shows contraction or near zero growth rates.

I do not expect any crash ( of more than 3 %)in the immediate future - at least till Jan

Ganz said...

Carl, have you ever seen a period such as this where the dollar index inversely influences the SPX to such a strong degree?

Denali92 said...

If your intermediate reaction is to happen, today would be the most appropriate day for a top, as we have had three decent intermediate tops occur two days before the FOMC meeting - it could be nothing, but we topped out 2 days prior to the FOMC in April, June and August.

All 3 times, we did have substantial drops. It would be odd for a substantial drop to occur at this time of year, but I guess it is always possible.

Thanks as always for your insights.


kcounty said...

hi carl - you have been calling $50 oil since August 2009. Although, it hasnt gone up much either!

RAED said...

Dear Sir,
Kindly asking you to update your interresting posting on Thursday, October 14, 2010 titled (THREE PEAKS & A DOMED HOUSE-REDUX).
With all Respect.