March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate for the March '11 contract is 1225-1238. I think the short term trend is still upward. Next upside target is 1250 which is strong resistance. I think a drop of 50-75 points is imminent. Once it is complete the market will resume its advance to 1300.
QQQQ: Next upside target is at 55.00 and has nearly been reached.
TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.
TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.
Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will be supported near 130 and from there will move up to 145.00.
Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.
January Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00.
GLD – December Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1450 is the next upside target.
SLV - December Silver: A move to new highs is underway. 31.00 is the upside target.
Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.
Apple: Should reach 350 (at least) before the bull market ends. Support is at 265.
5 comments:
As of yesterday, MZM (money supply at zero maturity- basically dollar currency as opposed treasury instruments at non-zero interest rates) was growing at a healthy(?) 8 %. MZM was growing at the rate of 4+ % during Aug Sep and 11-12 % during the past two months. My understanding is that the pace of the market climb will slow and not reverse, until MZM shows contraction or near zero growth rates.
I do not expect any crash ( of more than 3 %)in the immediate future - at least till Jan
Carl, have you ever seen a period such as this where the dollar index inversely influences the SPX to such a strong degree?
If your intermediate reaction is to happen, today would be the most appropriate day for a top, as we have had three decent intermediate tops occur two days before the FOMC meeting - it could be nothing, but we topped out 2 days prior to the FOMC in April, June and August.
All 3 times, we did have substantial drops. It would be odd for a substantial drop to occur at this time of year, but I guess it is always possible.
Thanks as always for your insights.
-D
hi carl - you have been calling $50 oil since August 2009. Although, it hasnt gone up much either!
Dear Sir,
Kindly asking you to update your interresting posting on Thursday, October 14, 2010 titled (THREE PEAKS & A DOMED HOUSE-REDUX).
With all Respect.
Raed
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