Friday, January 28, 2011

Guesstimates on January 28

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1293-1305. Next resistance above the market is at 1310. The ES has been very resilient in dull, narrow trading at new bull market highs. I also note that the AAII survey of investor sentiment shows the most bearish sentiment since the November low. I think this means that any 50-75 point break will begin from higher levels. In any case by the end of April this market will have traded at 1350.

QQQQ: I think the market will rally to 58.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will soon begin a move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

March Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00. The 91.50 level is strong resistance because it is the midpoint of the 2008 drop from 147.80 to 35.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target. Support is at 1315.

SLV - March Silver: The upside target at 31.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a top. Next upside target is 36.00. Support is at 25.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Has reached the 350 target. Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.

2 comments:

Bill said...

Well Standard & Poor's who correctly predicted the market pullback April last year, in late April they basically the started. They are saying the same thing. Expect a nasty next two weeks, here it is from http://www.cnbc.com/id/41295485

Standard & Poor's, for one, is predicting that its benchmark index, the S&P 500 [.SPX 1287.91 -11.63 (-0.89%) ], is likely to drop up to 10 percent in the next two weeks, based on a variety of factors both technical and fundamental. It is boldest forecast yet from a leading firm that the current market is overheated.

"Despite the hoopla over the (Dow industrials) eclipsing 12,000 and the S&P 500 nearing 1,300, we see widening cracks in the dam," Sam Stovall, S&P's chief equity strategist, said in an analysis for clients. "Many global indices have failed to follow the DJIA and 500 during the last week, and we see this as a major warning that a pullback or correction is near."

There are several other reasons Stovall said he is looking for a pullback, among them overly bullish sentiment and weak internals.

Kishore said...

Bill, a lot of people say a lot of things. Enough to drive anyone crazy!

So far, the correction is happening as Carl had predicted.

Egypt riots, following the riots in Algeria and spreading to other parts of world, appear to be a direct consequence of Bernanke's QE2.

Will the inflation exported by the US cause major disruptions throughout the world? How will riots for food affect QE?

Carl, it will be nice to hear your views on a macro economic trend that QE has set in.