Monday, January 31, 2011

Guesstimates on January 31

March S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1268-1281. I think the overnight drop below 1267.50 was a terminal shakeout and that the market will soon be heading for 1300 or above. A daily close below 1270.50 would have more bearish implications and suggest a move down to the 50 day moving average will develop first. In any case by the end of April this market will have traded at 1350.

QQQQ: I think the market will rally to 58.50.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: I think the euro will soon begin a move up to 145.00.

Dollar-Yen: A drop into the 78.00 - 79.00 range is underway and I think an important low will form in that zone.

March Crude: I still think crude oil is headed for 50.00. The 91.50 level is strong resistance because it is the midpoint of the 2008 drop from 147.80 to 35.00.

GLD – February Gold: A move to new highs is underway. 1495 is the next upside target. Support is at 1315.

SLV - March Silver: The upside target at 31.00 has been reached but there is still no sign of a top. Next upside target is 36.00. Support is at 25.50.

Google: The 540 level is support. A move that should take GOOG above 700 is underway.

Apple: Has reached the 350 target. Next upside target is 375. Support is at 310.

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