headed higher

Here is a daily bar chart of the June 2011 e-mini futures over the past year. You can see that the March 2011 low near 1241 ended a drop that was the biggest since the July 2010 low at 1002. I think the March 2011 low started a swing up which will carry the market above the 1400 level. (This is actually my conservative estimate.)

On the chart above I have highlighted two previous upswings with blue dash rectangles. The first one carried the ES up 187 points and the second one carried it up 163 points. The average is 175 points and adding that to the recent 1241 low gives a target of 1416. Notice too how the upper parallel of the trend channel I have drawn also suggests a 1416 top if the market's upward move continues at its recent pace.

In my estimate the March 2011 low saw the advancing issues oscillators (you can find them on my chart page) at their most oversold levels since the July 2010 low. The ES advanced 340 points from that low to the February 2011 top. Adding 340 points to 1241 gives an upside target of 1581. Something to think about.