Friday, July 15, 2011

Guesstimates on July 15, 2011

September S&P E-mini Futures: Today's day session range estimate is 1306-1321. I think the move to 1400 and above will resume today.

QQQ: Upside target is 63.00.

TYX (thirty year bond yield): The 30 year bond yield is on its way to 5.40%.

TNX (ten year note yield): The 10 year yield is headed for 4.50%.

Euro-US Dollar: Yesterday's strength above 1.4110 makes the drop below the June 15 low look like a shakeout. I think this market is now headed for 1.5300.

Dollar-Yen: The market is headed down to 70.00. Resistance above the market is at 82.45.

August Crude: A rally to 103-104 likely.

GLD – August Gold: Upside target is 1630. Support is at 1485.

SLV - September Silver: This market is headed for resistance at 41.00. Any strength above 43.00 would mean that the move will continue above 50.00.

Google: I think a move to 700 and above has begun.

Apple: APPL has reached support at 318 and now should begin a move to 430.


tellzhang said...

Carl, the range is sooooo wide then I should short ES all the way down!:-)

Kishore said...

Carl, listening to your constant parroting of the "move to 1400", it was easy to miss the move from 1350 to 1300.

Sometimes, it pays to ignore you!

modernarms said...

Kishore, Carl said in a post in early July that ES would go to 1340+, drop back to breakout area around 1300 then resume the uptrend towards 1400. What are you missing, is it that hard to understand? Too many people want instant gratification rather than exercising patience and discipline.

Mad Calf Apps said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
World of Finance said...

Which dated post was that please?

Carl Futia said...


try this link:

dave said...

Full Moon lows should be in.

New Moon rally dead ahead.

Win said...

Carl, I want to thank you again for this wonderful blog. I have learned so much over the last 4 years (since early 2007) from watching you work and explain your thought process. I am sure there are many like me who respect your wonderful teaching.

I recognize that one of the costs of your generosity on this open forum is that you are subjected to people who use your forum to vent their frustrations. Their abuse is usually reflective of internal issues over which you have no control, and I respect your standing policy to not comment on the comments here. There are others who have shut up shop in response to such BS -- I probably would -- but I hope you (and a couple of others I admire) are able to find a way to keep going.

MK said...

Kishore, Have you read the book "reminiscences of a stock operator" by Edwin Lefevre - the biograph of Jesse Livermore? I am sure you have. Have another read of the chapter on "old turkey" and you will see what Carl is getting at by repeating the 1400 target. I always reminds myself, sometimes the advice that seems so simple on the surface is the most difficult to understand. I first read ROSO 20 years ago in 1991 and still read it today. And I will take this comment one step further. Old Turkey's advice is not to ignore the short side (when the big move is higher) but more so to manage your positions accordingly!
I have had great success trading this way but I realize to each their own in this soft science we call "trading"

MK said...

With regard to EURUSD and many other FX pairs, last week on Tue July 12th there was an extreme capitulation in the implied volatility markets which leads me to believe FX bottomed and will be moving in the risk-on direction. I agree with Carl on higher EURUSD. This post gives some detail on the FX implied vol capitulation:

angel* said...

This is a free blog, Carl is giving his opinion based on his experience for free and you get to learn for free. If you cannot appreciate such generosity (which is already very RARE in this world) extended to you, please at least exercise some respect (for yourself) by not leaving nasty comments. Thank you.